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3% Take Buffalo – Liberty OVER (#121-122)

You can’t teach speed. You can’t teach size. That gives both offenses an edge against their opposing stop unit. 

Buffalo’s defensive team speed is limited at best.  We saw that last year when they gave up 38 points to Coastal Carolina; a comparable team to Liberty.  We saw that in Week 1 this season, when Wisconsin ran past the Bulls with no difficulty at all, gaining more than 300 yards on the ground in the process.  We saw it again last week when FCS Fordham hung 40 points on the Bulls, throwing for more than 300 yards.  Liberty has hung 30+ in each of their first two games; no surprise here if the Flames approach or exceed 30 points again this week; capable of using their team speed to blow past Bulls defenders.

But the Flames have all kinds of defensive issues themselves, most notably their rebuilt front seven, losing six starters in the offseason.  This is not a shutdown defense by any stretch of the imagination Buffalo has their best offensive line since the COVID season and their running game is bruising, primed to pound the undersized Flames in the trenches.  Liberty has yet to face a decent offense that can move the football – even Bowling Green hung 24 on them in their opener and Buffalo’s offense compares well to that of the Falcons.  On a calm, sunny afternoon in upstate New York, expect points in bunches. Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 56 or lower, 2% at 56.5 or higher