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(127) Penn State at (128) Illinois

Play Rating: 3%

Play Type: Full Game Side

Play: Penn State -14.5 (-110)

Date/Time: Sept 16, 2023 12:00 PM EDT / Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line

(Game Analysis Below)

Distinct Personnel Difference Here

Penn State now loaded with elite level personnel on each side of the ball

Illinois in re-building year after heavy losses – Numbers aren’t lying thus far

Ilini ranked #99 in nation in % of returning lettermen / #117 in %offensive yards returning / #88 in % of tackles returning / #96 in OL career starts

Illinois Problems & Deficiencies

Bret Bielema philosophy on how to win: 

Control the line of Scrimmage on each side

Run the ball successfully / win time of possession by substantial margin / play strong defense

None of those are working through 2 games and the results are a concern 

Toledo & Kansas combined: -16 first downs / -20.3% in 3DC / -73 rypg / -120 typg / allowed 8 sacks (1 every 6.8 pa) (6 last week vs. Kansas) only have 3 QB sacks (1 every 22 pa) / -9:36 TOP per game         

They aren’t the same team on the OL, the DL, In the secondary (2 CB’s & SS are in the NFL) 

Mississippi transfer QB soph Luke Altmyer now in first year of this offense run by OC Barry Lunney after spending 2 seasons in Lane Kiffin’s system…Extreme Opposites

Substantial Matchup Advantages For Penn State On Each Side Of The Ball

Penn State DL vs Illinois OL – PSU run defense already saw a running QB in WVA QB Garrett Greene and held him to 54 true rushing yards on 12 attempts / Luke Altmyer is Illinois leading rusher  

PSU pass rush vs Illinois Pass Protection – 3 sacks / 3 hurries / 7 TFL vs West Virginia & Greene was 16/27/162/0 TD’s

Seems like a very similar matchup with Illinois OL having even more problems opening holes for run game & protecting QB since WVA OL has 133 returning starts (#10 in nation) 

Nittany Lion Offense vs. Illinois Defense Allowing 477.5 typg this season / Has had trouble with Dual Threat QB’s in each of their games and allowed 262 rushing (6.0 pc) & 277 passing (72.4% comp) to Kansas LW 

Dual Threat QB Drew Allar / RB’S Singleton & Allen / WR Speed/ Explosiveness and threats at all 3 levels / OL has been terrific

Conference Opener (Non Division)

After 63-7 stomping of FCS Delaware last week on the heels of late TD for cover vs. West Virginia…It’s obvious PSU HC James Franklin has no problem philosophically winning by margin 

It’s apparent Illinois is still trying to solidify things in most offensive & defensive facets

If this were Ohio State or Michigan the price would be 17+…feel like Penn State is on their level this season and may still be getting value with them 

Prediction: Penn State -14.5 (-110)