Recent Play Details

3% Take Kansas City (#275)

Week 2 is a unique time in the NFL betting markets.  Many bettors believe what they saw in Week 1, wanting to bet on the teams that looked good and against the teams that didn’t live up to expectations in their season debut. But the long term data says to look the other way.  Plain and simple: Week 2, 1-0 teams vs 0-1 teams since 2010?  41-61 ATS, consistent and significant money losers.

KC didn’t play well offensively in their opener; scoring only two TD’s while giving up one TD on an interception return.  They could have Travis Kelce back this week, but even if they don’t, I don’t think this Super Bowl winning offense has dropped off much in the offseason; a bad game, not a bad offense.  It’s also surely worth noting Andy Reid’s record off a loss: 7-0 SU in the last seven tries, with six of those ‘W’s coming by more than a field goal.

NFL home teams went 4-12 ATS in Week 1, continuing a long term NFL trend of declining home field advantages.  The Jags biggest weakness on paper was their biggest weakness in Week 1 – a porous offensive line.  That’s bad news in any game against a potent offense like that of the Chiefs, and it’s an even bigger concern for this bettor with Chiefs DL Chris Jones expected to suit up this week after ending his holdout.  Lay it or don’t play it!  Take the Chiefs.

Line Parameter: 3% at -3 or lower, 2% at -3.5 or higher