Recent Play Details

3% Take Las Vegas (#273)

I’m going to start this write-up by talking about the preseason and something that stood out to me in August.  Buffalo played their starters in Week 2 at Pittsburgh.  Those starters got destroyed; the Bills trailed 21-0 at halftime. That week, head coach Sean McDermott was not amused: “It’s clear we are not where we need to be right now.”

When I see a quote like that, I’m interested.  My clients and I had a 5% Big Ticket wager on the Bills in their preseason finale, against the Bears, the best ‘motivational/player rotational’ spot I saw all August.  We cashed that bet; but it came with an asterisk. Buffalo did NOT play well in that game on either side of the football when the starters were on the field.  It stood out to me as a red flag.

When I see red flags in August, I’m looking to bet them in September.  Here’s what I wrote betting against the Bills on Monday Night Football prior to their loss to the Jets: “The Bills did not have a good preseason – the offensive line struggled to protect, the receiving corps depth was clearly limited and Josh Allen didn’t look comfortable in limited duty.  And, after winning 10+ games and making the playoffs in each of the last four years, this bettor is concerned that the Bills window of championship opportunity has come and gone; an aging team.”  I’ll stand by that assessment heading into Week 2

There is a trend that shows teams off a loss as a favorite are good bets in Week 2.  We’ve got 1-0 vs 0-1; the wiseguys love the 0-1 team trying to avoid an 0-2 start; especially playoff contenders like Buffalo.  The wiseguys hate West Coast teams playing early start East Coast games.  Buffalo will get plenty of wiseguy support this week – there’s line ‘value’ on the Las Vegas side.

And let’s not forget that this West Coast team (the Raiders) stayed in the Eastern Time zone, practicing in West Virginia all week.   In my mind that’s a HUGE factor here in a game where I expect Las Vegas to hang tough for the full 60 minutes.  Too many points!  Take the Raiders.

Line Parameter: 3% at +8 or higher, 2% at +7.5 or lower