Recent Play Details

Blue Jays (7:07PM ET BSSW, SNET, MLB Network) – Minnesota gets it done to make our only bet for Tuesday a winner and now it’s back North of the border to try again with the Toronto Blue Jays as they look to stop the bleeding in the third game of a four game set at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Futures bets aren’t included in the service, but I know many of you play what I give out prior to the season and I want to touch on those here.  On Monday the Diamondbacks won to cash our biggest bet, their regular season win total over, which will go to offset the unit or so we broke up betting the White Sox every which way.  That leaves three more positions, anything tied to the Cardinals is dead but our positions on the Mariners and Blue Jays are both alive and well and, since virtually nothing else has had sustained success this season, I’m going to “double down” on these teams down the stretch (because I still think there’s a ton of value tied to both) and we will start by asking the Jays to win here.

We “started” by asking the Blue Jays to win on Monday night and they didn’t get the job done as Chris Bassitt didn’t have his best stuff and the bullpen eventually allowed the Rangers to blow it open.  I didn’t love yesterday’s matchup, which proved to be a good thing, but I’ll be SHOCKED if the Rangers can pull off three straight road wins and I think the Jays show up in what is basically a playoff game here.  The Rangers jumped the Jays in the Wild Card standings with last nights win and now have the tiebreaker so the magnitude of this game (for both but really for the Jays) cant’ be understated here.  Toronto has struggled to generate offense the past few games but the pitching lines up well for them in this one so it’s possible the Jays might not need a bunch of runs to win here.  Texas has back to back wins but the Rangers had some huge pitching issues entering this series and now come into THIS game with a tired bullpen.  Toronto isn’t going to go quietly, especially at home, and I think the Blue Jays bounce back and get the job done here. 

Texas starting pitching was horrific entering this series and one of the main culprits of that has been Jordan Montgomery who hasn’t registered a win since mid-August. Montgomery has a 5.56 ERA across his last four starts and I expect the southpaw to struggle with a Jays lineup loaded with right handed power hitters.  Overall, Montgomery has been very effective this season with a 3.62 ERA and 1.24 WHIP but he profiles as the type of pitcher this Blue Jays lineup feasts on when they are clicking.  As I said earlier the Jays offense hasn’t been clicking, they also saw Montgomery earlier this season and only managed three runs but Montgomery only lasted five innings in that start and the upside here is massive if the Jays do get a beat on Montgomery early.  The biggest reason for that is Montgomery ineffective or out early means the Rangers bullpen gets involved which has been used extensively of late since the starting pitching has been so bad.  Texas needed 3+ innings of high leverage relief after Max Scherzer last night and Chris Stratton (who has been red hot) has now been used back to back days and likely gets the night off here.  If Montgomery doesn’t go deep, and the Rangers fall behind, we might see them play the “lesser of two evils” and go with their “B” bullpen staff in an attempt to set themselves up for the remainder of a very important week. 

In a MLB season where not much has gone my way I still cashed my largest preseason position (Diamondbacks RSW over) and could really make it a profitable futures portfolio if the Blue Jays or Mariners can win the American League and/or World Series which both are very much alive to do.  If either of these teams gets hot I have a feeling we will finish the season strong as well (since there’s still a ton of day to day value tied to both teams).  Play on Blue Jays -122 for 4% (or 4 units)