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Akron (7:30PM ET ESPNU) – It’s a busy night for us on Saturday with our third kickoff in the “prime time” window with some non-conference action when the Kentucky Wildcats take on the Akron Zips at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky.

I have a large season win total over bet on Akron over 3.5 wins that I placed months ago, because of that I’ve watched every snap of Akron football so far this season and I’m going to try to explain what happened last weekend and why Akron should play a lot better here.  For whatever reason Akron head coach decided to go with Jeff Undercuffler at quarterback, it’s a name I’m familiar with since he started his career at Albany (I grew up in the Albany area) so I got to watch him there and took an interest in him when he got play when DJ Irons got hurt last year.  Undercuffler was terrible in that game, he threw three interceptions and because of that Akron should have lost in a game where they were gifted a scoop and score for a fortunate win. 

The reason I don’t understand putting the game in Undercuffler’s hands is DJ Irons is such a better quarterback with a far higher ceiling.  It’s possible the game plan for head coach Joe Moorhead was always to run a two quarterback system and Moorhead’s postgame comments seemed to confirm that.  Moorhead also might have gone to Undercuffler due to some of the decisions Irons was making in the first half running the football.  Irons was 7 for 9 passing against Morgan State but ineffective running the ball so it’s possible Moorhead thought a more traditional passer gave Akron a better chance to win that game.  Going back to the Temple game I thought Irons was great, he had Akron moving up and down the field in the first half and the Zips had a 21-10 halftime lead against a good Temple team.  The second half wasn’t as good but Irons finished with a respectable 205 yards passing and two touchdowns in a game where Akron nearly pulled the upset win.  The one good thing (other than Akron squeaking out the win) that comes out of the Morgan State game is now Kentucky is going to have to prepare for multiple quarterbacks.  Moorhead acknowledged the interceptions but praised Undercuffler’s ability to push the ball down field to Akron’s playmakers.  I have a feeling this is going to be a “ride the hot hand” situation again but I also think Irons has the playmaking ability to give Kentucky some trouble and in a game where the difference is likely a garbage time score I like Akron’s chances to be able to do just that. 

Akron will need to sort things out on their offensive line and at the quarterback position but what’s gone somewhat unnoticed is how good the Zips defense has played.  This was a unit that really improved toward the end of last season and has been fantastic through two games this year.  Akron completely shut down the Temple run game and just about singlehandedly beat Morgan State last weekend overcoming FIVE turnovers by the Akron offense.  Kentucky isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, Devin Leary (NC State transfer) is a capable quarterback but the Wildcats 44-14 opening scoreline against Ball State was bolstered by a fumble 6 and a kick return. Last week Kentucky struggled to finish off drives against FCS Eastern Kentucky so I’m confident that this very athletic Akron defense will be able to manage a few stops here.  I think Kentucky has a very solid football team where there’s no major weakness on either side of the ball but this team is built to control field position and grind out wins as opposed to blow teams out by 4-5 scores.  I don’t think Akron is going to be a pushover here by any means but I also think there’s ways where Kentucky dominates this game start to finish and STILL doesn’t cover this big number. 

Ball State, like Akron, hails from the MAC and Ball State was the exact same size +25.5 underdog in Lexington two weeks ago.  Ball State failed to cover but that was a VERY deceiving final score as Kentucky had two non-offensive touchdowns and the stats were relatively even in that game.  I have Akron rated ahead of Ball State so getting the same number in virtually the same game demonstrates some value to me here.  I love this Akron team in the underdog role and expect the Zips to compete start to finish and get us the money against a number that’s just too big.  Play on Akron +25.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)