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Troy (7PM ET NFL Network) – Let’s continue the conversation with Kansas State’s opponent last week, the Troy Trojans, who head back home for a huge Sun Belt Conference showdown against the James Madison Dukes at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama. 

Just as the 42-13 final was somewhat deceiving in favor of Kansas State I think it’s a tad harsh if you were on the Troy side and lost by 29. Troy was on my “long list” last week, I ultimately didn’t get to the window with the Trojans but would have been very disappointed if I did because I didn’t think Troy played all that badly as a +17 point underdog in that game.  Troy generated nearly 300 yards of total offense, 216 of which came through the air, and I think the Trojans will have little issue throwing it on a James Madison team that just allowed 377 passing yards to Virginia.  Troy had a fantastic defense last season and, while that hasn’t been apparent when you look at the box scores of the first two games, I think it’s worth noting Troy had a huge lead throughout against Stephen F Austin and was stepping up in class considerably to play Kansas State on the road.  Troy did lose some upperclassmen so it’s possible the Trojans take a step back defensively but I still expect Troy to have one of the better defenses as far as the Sun Belt Conference is concerned. James Madison was let off the hook by Virginia, I don’t think the Dukes deserved to win that game and I think the loss might come for JMU on the back end of back to back road games here.

The worst part about the “near miss” last weekend for James Madison is the fact that is NOT a good Virginia team.  I talked about how BAD I thought Virginia would be extensively prior to the season so seeing Virginia get whatever they wanted against James Madison gives me confidence that Troy have some offensive success here.  If that’s the case I think Troy ends up with a win and cover as the Trojans defense (even if they have regressed a little bit) is FAR better than Virginia’s (in my opinion).  I also think James Madison wont be as good offensively this season as quarterback Todd Centeio was a big reason for their improbable run last year and they lost him to graduation. James Madison also lost a good amount of skill player production so, while still formidable at the Group of 5 level, I don’t know that we see the Dukes torch an above average defense like Troy in what is JMU’s first real “test” of the new season.

I think this is a difficult spot for James Madison especially given the fact they won that barnburner in Charlottesville.  Virginia might not consider James Madison a rival, but for JMU knocking off “big brother” Virginia (even if it is a down year for the Cavaliers) is still a huge deal. Doing it on the road is an even bigger deal and in a game where there was close to 800 total yards and 71 point scored AND James Madison needed 12 unanswered points to win by one completely screams “let down” spot this week.  To make things more difficult, this week’s game is the conference opener for both teams and a road game against a Troy team expected to compete in this league again this season.  With a game of this magnitude, and the spot being what it is, it’s just hard to see James Madison coming back with another knock out performance.  James Madison doesn’t have the talent to win games by attrition this season so I think they will be second best in this one and it will translate to a Troy win and cover.  Play on Troy -3 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)