Recent Play Details

3% Miami (7:40 ET): These are two teams I’ve expressed skepticism over throughout 2023. Milwaukee will almost certainly be making the postseason and has a three game lead (over the Cubs) in the NL Central. Miami’s situation is more tenuous as they are 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot. This series certainly did not get off to a positive start for the Marlins, who were beaten BADLY Monday (12-0!), which drops their already poor YTD run differential to -58. (Mets are only -38!) But, after such a bad loss, I think this is a great spot to fire on the Fish as underdogs as they won’t be facing Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes. 

Now Milwaukee pitching has been great for much of the season, especially the L2 days. On Sunday, three pitchers combined to no-hit the Yankees for 10 innings. But the Brew Crew still managed to lose 4-3 in 13 innings. Yesterday, Woodruff’s CG six-hitter was more than enough as the offense collected a season-high 17 hits. But tonight, I think the string of great efforts on the mound ends when Freddy Peralta toes the rubber. I know that Peralta has enjoyed a strong second half, but he only had four strikeouts his last time out in a game the Brewers lost as -170 favorites in Pittsburgh. Peralta’s velocity was down and it was the third consecutive start where he allowed a HR. 

Miami is going the opener route in this one with JT Chargois. His last two times in the role, he’s allowed just one hit in two innings and the team went on to win both games. Edward Cabrera will follow and after a decent stint in the minors (2.22 ERA in 28 ⅓ IP), he tossed four shutout innings w/ eight strikeouts against the Dodgers. That was following Chargois. Key here is trying to hold Milwaukee to three runs or less as they are 13-48 when that happens. I think it’s very possible as I remain skeptical of this Brewers’ offense, which certainly won’t duplicate yesterday’s result and they’re 0-3 YTD after scoring 11+ runs the previous game. Worth a shot on the dog here. 3% Miami (Play to +130)