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South Alabama (7PM ET ESPN Plus) – We go double barrel action in the 7PM ET kickoffs with a pair of Group of Five sides, the second of which is also out of the Sun Belt in the South Alabama Jaguars as they hit the road to battle the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

I’m really disappointed with how South Alabama has started the season but I’m willing to try one more time with the Jaguars based on how overvalued I think Oklahoma State is right now.  I’m also willing to cut South Alabama some slack as the Tulane team they lost to in Week 1 (with Michael Pratt) looks to be a far better team than I anticipated them being after some personnel losses in the offseason.  South Alabama eased their way to a 35-17 win over FCS Southeastern Louisiana last weekend in a game where the Jaguars put up 509 yards of total offense but didn’t cover but it’s also possible the Jags didn’t feel the need to “step on the throat” of a lesser opponent.  Here that won’t be the case as South Alabama is back on the road and back in the underdog role, a same size dog as they were against Tulane despite this being a far easier opponent (in my opinion).  Oklahoma State is 2-0 but this program is in disarray and it’s not being discussed at all which means it’s not really being taken into consideration by the oddsmakers.  Sources close to the program have told me that Oklahoma State has a real issue with NIL money and that Mike Gundy would have probably been gone if his kid wasn’t still there.  How else do you explain Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State’s starter and one of the better quarterbacks in the Big 12, transferring to Ole Miss to essentially be a backup?  There are issues in Stillwater right now, they haven’t been exposed yet because Oklahoma State is 2-0 against two bad teams but when they start running into capable opponents it’s going to be an issue and South Alabama fits that bill. 

I was very close to being on Arizona State last weekend, missing the playable number kept me off and I’m glad it did as that’s a tough loss if you were a Sun Devils backer.  Arizona State led 15-10 at half, they were driving to start the second half and were stuffed on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 in what was the clear turning point in the game.  Arizona State didn’t score the rest of the way because Arizona State, like Oklahoma State, is also a complete mess right now.  Arizona State also lost an offensive lineman early in that game which made the Sun Devils pedestrian offense that much worse.  South Alabama is a defensive team first, but this is a very capable offense that returns almost everyone from last season.  Carter Bradley is a seasoned signal caller and I expect the Jaguars to be far more competent here offensively than Arizona State was.  South Alabama turned the ball over five times against Tulane which is uncharacteristic of this Jaguars offense and likely won’t happen again here. Limiting turnovers would have kept South Alabama in the game with a much better Tulane team and if the Jaguars can clean up the mistakes I think they have a great chance to win here.

Even if the offense isn’t perfect South Alabama still has a chance to win because they have an outstanding defense.  The five turnovers didn’t help South Alabama’s defense against Tulane but ultimately I have to just tip the cap to Pritt who was pinpoint on every single pass attempt. That won’t be the case here, Oklahoma State still has no clue who their quarterback is and right now they are playing three different quarterbacks who have all been average at best.  Alan Bowman got the majority of the reps against Arizona State but his numbers were still somewhat pedestrian and I think right now he's simply the lesser of three evils for this Oklahoma State offense.  Oklahoma State had an efficient game against Arizona State, the Cowboys went 8 for 16 on third down and did just enough to move the chains when they needed to.  Oklahoma State managed to win comfortably despite just 304 total yards and committing nine penalties which could potentially be good enough for a win here too but doing it by more than a touchdown is another story.

I think these two teams are relatively even and I see South Alabama with more of an upward trajectory.  South Alabama is going to be very competitive here and I won’t be at all surprised when the Jaguars leave town with a win.  Play on South Alabama +7.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)