Recent Play Details

4% Cincinnati (6:40 ET): This morning on the “Power 5,” I said to take the Over in this matchup between the Reds and Tigers. I’m certainly not wavering off that position here, but “upon further review,” look for the bulk of the scoring to come from the road team. The Reds are very much alive in the NL Wild Card race. In fact, they are just two games back (of Arizona) for the final spot. If you recall, back in the early summer, I bet this team (as a 19/1 longshot) to win the NL Central. That’s obviously not going to happen. But the team is getting healthy again and has a favorable stretch of games this week against these Tigers and then the Mets.

The Reds have been a better team on the road this year than at home, which is curious considering they’re a young ballclub that generated plenty of enthusiasm with a tremendous run back in June. But the “numbers are the numbers” and they are 38-32 on the road vs. 36-39 at Great American Ballpark. After going 5-5 on a recently completed homestand, they really need a sweep here in the Motor City. A quality start from Brandon Williamson would be ideal as he comes off the COVID list to pitch tonight. Going back to mid-June, Williamson has allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of 13 starts. He will be facing a Tigers’ lineup that is 26th in wOBA vs. lefties since Aug 1. 

I know that I previously expressed concern about the Reds’ bullpen on the “Power 5,” but the fact is they are a) rested and b) not only do the Tigers struggle against lefties, they are the 2nd lowest scoring team in all of MLB. Following an off-day, the Reds are 13-8 in this season. The Tigers are 5-19 in that same situation. Joey Wentz is starting for the Tigers and has been mostly bad this season, allowing 5+ runs in 8 of his 17 starts. The team is 5-12 with him on the mound. Joey Votto and Jonathan India are both back in the Reds lineup (huge!) and the Tigers are just 36-61 outside their own division. Price is too short! 4% Cincinnati (Play to -140)