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Twins (7:40PM ET SUN, BSNO, MLB.TV) – We simply can’t string together MLB wins as the Jays fall short but the Diamondbacks do win last night to cash the RSW Over that I gave out on all WagerTalk shows prior to the season.  The Diamondbacks bet won’t be reflected in our record but I do hope some of you cashed there and I’ll look to continue the recent zig-zag in MLB with a bounce back win here when the Minnesota Twins take on the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of a three game set at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. 

One area I have had success in MLB this season has been backing the Twins when they come off a couple losses and have all their bullpen arms rested.  That’s the case here, Minnesota has lost the past two days and hasn’t lead in a game since Saturday so they have bene able to conserve their high leverage relief arms and will surely roll anyone and everyone out behind Joe Ryan here.  This is a big game for Ryan, it will be his first career start against a Rays team that drafted and then traded him (for an aging Nelson Cruz) and I think that gives him some extra incentive to pitch well here.  Ryan has been excellent since his return from the IL with a 2.40 ERA across three starts and the Twins have been conservative with his pitch count since the return which should mean he’s ready to open it up in his fourth start back.  If the Twins do decide to keep Ryan in the 80-90 pitch range that’s no problem because we will have the front end of the Minnesota bullpen (namely Jhoan Duran and Caleb Theilbar) who have been outstanding this year. Minnesota is close to having their division wrapped up but a third straight loss could give some life to the Guardians (if Cleveland wins later tonight) so I’m willing to put my money on the Twins coming to play and they have done so at Target Field all season where they are 42-31 this year. 

Tampa Bay is 15-5 in their past 20 games but winning a number of games in a row takes it’s toll on a bullpen and that could be an issue for the Rays here. I also think Tampa Bay has the lesser of the two starting pitchers here as Zack Littell takes the ball for the visitors tonight.  Littell comes off one of the best outings of his career, an eight inning gem against the Mariners where he allowed one run and took a tough luck loss.  I think that outing is deceiving as Littell struck out just four batters and had some big time BABIP luck to get through eight innings unscathed.  Littell gave up four earned runs in each of his prior four starts, he has just nine strikeouts TOTAL in his last three starts and the Twins have collectively hit the ball far better at home all season.  Tampa Bay loses outfielder Jose Siri after he suffered a fractured hand last night, Siri has made the most starts in center field for the Rays this season so that’s a big blow that will hurt Tampa Bay defensively as well.  Jake Diekman threw 30 pitches yesterday so he’s likely unavailable while closer Pete Fairbanks has pitched in three of the past four days and could get the night off as well.  Tampa Bay is chasing Baltimore for the division but the Rays are comfortably in the playoffs so I think we see the Rays “B” bullpen and Littell to the second choice Rays relievers is something I’m willing to oppose here.

In the end it’s just a great spot to back the Twins who have been a far better team at home this season.  If Ryan ends up being better than Littell (which the sharp prop market suggests will be the case) we should enter the late innings with a big bullpen advantage and I think under those circumstances the Twins will be able to see out this win. Play on Twins -125 for 4% (or 4 units)