Recent Play Details

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7:07 PM ET -- MLB 

915 Texas Rangers
916 Toronto Blue Jays

Play: UNDER 8.5 -105

List Pitchers: Dunning & Bassitt

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at 8.5 or better
3% play at 8
2% play at 7.5

My MLB totals plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Key Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

The UNDER is 12-0 since 7/8/2022 when Chris Bassitt starts as a favorite of more than -125 but less than -185.  These games stayed under by an average of 2.7 runs per game.

The UNDER is 10-2-1 since 2022 when Dane Dunning starts as a road underdog with the total set at 10 or less.

The UNDER is 6-0 this season when Toronto lost its previous matchup to its current opponent and allowed 10 or more runs in that loss this season.  These games stayed under by an average of 3.75 runs per game.