114 Utah State at Air Force
Coming into the season our power ratings would have had the host favored by 20 in this matchup. The opener was posted at 9 1/2 and there are some 9’s out there right now. So why has Utah State gotten so much love? A 24-14 loss at then #25 Iowa, and a 78-28 home win over Idaho State.
Iowa really hasn’t looked like a top 25 team in their first two games, with a 7 point road win last week at a weak Iowa State squad. And in that Idaho State game last week Utah State had less first downs 28-23 and had a +3 turnover margin.
Air Force enters the week a perfect 2-0 after taking on a weak schedule of Robert Morris and San Houston State. They are looking at double revenge in this matchup vs the Aggies, after losing 34-27 last year and 49-45 the previous season. Considering the Falcons have not lost more than three games in any season since 2018. You can be sure Troy Calhoun has circled this matchup. Throw in the fact that Air Force has lost their season opener five straight years, and we have an extremely motivated favorite on Friday.
PLAY AIR FORCE
Good to -11
3% play at -11 ½ to -12 ½
3% at -11 ½ to -12 ½