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Missouri (12PM ET SEC Network) – We split our CFB plays in Week 2 and it’s a slow start out of the gate for College Football.  It’s similar to the way we started football last season yet we finished nicely ahead so I’m going to open it up with the first of what will be a loaded Week 3 card for me and start in the SEC where the Missouri Tigers battle the #15 Kansas State Wildcats at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri.

Let’s start with last week, I nearly got to the window with Troy which turned out to be a sharp side come gameday but was glad I didn’t as the Trojans faded in the final stanza to a 42-13 loss.  It was a strong performance by Kansas State, the second in as many weekends for the Wildcats, but home games against SEMO and Troy are completely different from having to win AND COVER what I consider to be an inflated number on the road against an underrated Missouri team.  Missouri is off to a similar start, 2-0 against a pair of teams they are supposed to beat, but the Tigers were far less impressive barely squeaking by Middle Tennessee State last weekend.  Missouri struggled to run the ball in that game, but it was always going to be difficult to run the ball against Kansas State’s elite run defense anyway, so I think Missouri puts this game in the hands of quarterback Brady Cook who I currently have as a signal caller flying under the radar in the SEC. 

Cook has been sharp, through two games he doesn’t have a turnover and he’s completed 77.5 percent of his passes which is huge for Mizzou since competency at the quarterback position is what they have lacked in recent years.  Eli Drinkwitz has never had a great offense during his tenure at Missouri but that could change this season with Cook under center and Kirby Moore who comes in as the new offensive coordinator to revamp this offense.  Moore was the mastermind behind the great Jake Haener led Fresno State offenses the past few seasons and with Cook and a slew of solid skill players I won’t be surprised if we see Missouri take a big step forward offensively this season.  We are only two games in so I’m not that concerned that we haven’t seen Mizzou go out and hang 50 on someone because Mizzou has never been and still isn’t that type of team.  This is still a Missouri team that is going to rely on their experienced defense to win games which was the case last weekend as Mizzou kept Middle Tennessee State at “arm’s length” with just 285 yards of total offense.  The Missouri pass rush accounted for four sacks and I think Will Howard and the Kansas State passing attack will have their work cut out for them against an experienced Missouri secondary here.  I think the number is a tad inflated based on where I expect Kansas State to be this season but, on the flipside, I’m also getting to back a Missouri team that I think ends up outperforming market expectations and has HUGE upside based on what we have (or haven’t) seen to this point.

Kansas State had an incredible season in 2022, they made it to the Big 12 title game and knocked off eventual National Championship runner up TCU in an epic game in Arlington.  I’m of the opinion Kansas State comes nowhere near replicating that effort this year, the Wildcats lost a ton of skill players (including NFL running back Deuce Vaughn) and I’m not a believer in career backup Will Howard being able to propel THIS Kansas State team to those heights.  Treshawn Ward appears to be a serviceable Big 12 running back but he’s no “Deuce” and he’s not going to add an extra level to the offense like Vaughn did. Ward will be able to churn out a productive season behind a solid offensive line but I think Kansas State lacks the explosiveness needed to consistently cover numbers as a favorite.  I’m also not sold on Kansas State’s defense, the Wildcats lost some huge names from last year’s team and shutting down SEMO and Troy in Manhattan isn’t enough for me to get on board with this defense at present. In the end I think Kansas State is a solid team out of the Big 12 but THIS Wildcats team isn’t special like last year’s was and I think that will ultimately keep them on the wrong side of the ATS battle, starting here.  Play on Missouri +5.5 for 4% (or 4 units)