1:37 PM ET -- MLB
969 Kansas City Royals
970 Toronto Blue Jays
Play: UNDER 8 -110
List Pitchers: Ragans & Berrios
Bet Size: 4%
Line Parameters:
4% play at 8 or better
3% play at 7.5
2% play at 7
My MLB totals plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Key Trends/Angles/Thoughts:
These Toronto hitters have never faced KC lefty Cole Ragans. It's usually tough for hitters when facing a southpaw for the first time.
6 of Ragans' 7 career road starts have gone UNDER, including the last 6 in a row (3 this season).
Since May 23rd, the UNDER is 10-1 when Jose Berrios starts on 5 or 6 days rest.
KC's 76 wRC+ against RHP on the road is 24% below average and dead-last in MLB.
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