Recent Play Details

4% Tennessee (1:00 ET): This boils down to the fact that I believe the market is “too high” on the Saints and “too low” on the Titans. Tennessee was 7-3 SU last season (coming off a 12-5 SU 2021 where they were the #1 seed in the AFC) when everything went wrong (injuries!) and led to an 0-7 finish. Yet they still had a shot at winning the AFC South in the final game of the regular season! With QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry back, plus WR DeAndre Hopkins in the fold, look for a bounce back year from the Titans. Yes, offensive line is a valid concern. But HC Mike Vrabel is not only 22-9 ATS as a dog of a FG or more, but he has a winning STRAIGHT UP record as a dog! 

The Saints are division favorites in the NFC South, but I like the Falcons in that market for a variety of reasons. One is that the Falcons took multiple players from the Saints’ defense, not to mention the coordinator! Derek Carr comes in as the new QB1, with a lot of hype, but he has typically struggled when in the first year of a new system. In fact, his four worst statistical years have all been under a new coach or coordinator. RB Alvin Kamara being suspended for the first three games certainly hurts the Saints’ offense as well. 

Generally speaking, in a game that’s projected not to have a lot of scoring (total here is 41.5/42), going with the dog is the way to go. I’ve already hit on Vrabel’s previous success as a dog. New Orleans’ Dennis Allen is 15-38 SU all-time as a HC and has never won more than seven games in a single season. The Saints’ defense was really bad last year, ranking last in pass-rush win rate, 29th on third downs and 24th at stopping the run. They also had the second fewest takeaways. As mentioned above, they lost a couple of their BETTER defensive players in the offseason. Take the points here as the Titans are a live dog. 4% Tennessee (Play to +2)