6:05 PM ET -- MLB
905 Miami Marlins
906 Philadelphia Phillies
Play: 906 PHILADELPHIA First 5 Innings -0.5 -130
List Pitchers: Cueto & Nola
Bet Size: 4%
Line Parameters:
4% play at -135 or better
3% play at -136 to -140
2% play at -141 to -145
Aaron Nola has pitched a whole lot better at home this season as compared to the road. I also like that Nola is in a bounce-back spot after allowing 7 runs in just 4.2 innings in Milwaukee last Saturday. I also like that Nola took the loss the last time he faced the Marlins, July 9th in Miami. He didn't pitch well in that game either. Both previously mentioned starts were on the road where he has struggled this season. But Nola is on his home mound tonight and he should be primed for a good outing.
Johnny Cueto hasn't pitched well lately. Over his last five starts, Cueto owns a 5.93 ERA, 6.99 FIP, and 2.96 HR/9. Cueto has allowed 2 homers in 4 of those five starts.
The Phillies own a 109 wRC+ against RHP at home, which is 9% above average and #9 in MLB.
Miami owns an 87 wRC+ against RHP on the road, which is 13% below average and #23 in MLB.
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