Recent Play Details

4% Cleveland (1:00 ET): Talked about this one earlier this week on WagerTalk Today with Teddy and Prez. First things first, Cleveland has always been a nice home for me. But the old trip up I-71 never seems to treat Joe Burrow and the Bengals well. Burrow has never won in Cleveland. Overall, the Bengals have dropped each of their previous five visits here. Just last year, they played (probably) their worst game of the season, losing 32-13 on Halloween Night. I certainly think it’s “curious” that after Burrow was announced as a “go” here (suffered calf injury in training camp), the number has come DOWN. 

The big question mark for the Browns coming into 2023 is QB Deshaun Watson, who did not look good in limited duty last year after returning from suspension. If the Browns ultimately fail in their goal of returning to the postseason, it will likely be “on” Watson as the organization has surrounded him with tremendous talent. All five starters are back on one of the best offensive lines in the league. I like what the team has at receiver and RB Nick Chubb (5.1 yards per carry LY) should again be among the league’s leading rushers. On the defensive side of the ball, I love the hiring of Jim Schwartz as coordinator. 

Since returning to the league, the Browns have infamously been very poor in Week 1. But the Bengals have also been notoriously slow starters under Zac Taylor as well, going 1-7 ATS the first two weeks of the season during his tenure. I faded them in Week 1 last year as they lost outright to the Steelers. Part of this handicap is that I’m not as high on Cincy as the market (thinking Under 11.5 wins) and Burrow’s calf injury could be a concern. I’m a believer in Watson and think the Browns were MUCH better than their record last year (had the lead going into the 4Q nine times). Take the points while you still can. 4% Cleveland (Play to Pick)