Recent Play Details

4% Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): I gave this out over the summer (at +6.5!) and am “doubling down” here (even at a lower number). In my free play analysis, I predicted the number would come down and it has. Minnesota is a team I’m “selling on” for 2023. As you’ve undoubtedly heard, their profile from last season just screams “regression.” Not only did the Vikings somehow manage to go 11-0 SU in one-score games last season, a NFL record, but they actually finished with a negative YTD point differential despite 13 wins overall (a NFL first). Going back to the start of the 2020 season, only FIVE of the Vikings’ 28 wins have been by more than one possession! 

Now Tampa Bay is a team most are looking to sell high on entering the year. They said goodbye to Tom Brady (for real this time!) and were a league worst 4-13-1 ATS last season. But here’s the thing: Brady was bad in his final campaign and the Bucs were underdogs in just four games all of 2022. Only once were they getting more than 3.5 points. So I think the market has moved too severely against them for this Week 1 matchup. As a Cleveland resident, I’m no Baker Mayfield fan, but I don’t think the downgrade from the 2022 version of Tom Brady is as severe as some are making it out to be. 

The Bucs still have a quality defense, which is NOT something you can say about the Vikings. In fact, the Vikes gave up the second most passing yards in the league last year. Can you believe that Minnesota was actually outgained on a per game and per play basis last season? That’s insane for a 13-win team. This is a team that’s 2-5 ATS its last seven tries laying four or more, so I’m not scared off by the fact the market seems to agree with me and is backing the underdog here. QB Kirk Cousins is simply NOT trustworthy as a favorite and the Vikings’ offense also said goodbye to RB Dalvin Cook. Take the points. 4% Tampa Bay (Play to +3.5)