Recent Play Details

3% Take California (#394)

Here’s an excerpt from what I wrote about Cal last week prior cashing a winning bet on the Bears in their blowout win at North Texas.

“The betting marketplace is viewing the final four remaining teams in the PAC-12 (Stanford, Cal, Washington State and Oregon State) as bet-against squad….. But Cal looks like a MUCH improved squad from last year; a team the betting markets are sleeping on coming into 2023.  Cal went 1-3 in 2020, 5-7 in 2021 and 4-8 last year – it’s not like the betting markets are enamored with Justin Wilcox’s squad.  Wilcox hit the transfer portal HARD this offseason, and there could be as many as 19 first year transfer players on the plane to Denton this week. Nine of them are projected starters on the Bears latest depth chart, including transfer QB Sam Jackson from TCU. Wilcox, talking about how things have changed: ‘It’s a totally different environment from two, three years ago…..the dynamics (have changed).  Our competitiveness has certainly increased at a number of positions.’”

It's surely worth noting that it was backup QB Ben Finley who averaged 8.5 yards per pass ATTEMPT in their 58-21 win at North Texas last Saturday.  I’m comfortable backing the Bears whether it’s Finley or the more mobile Sam Jackson behind center.  It’s also worth noting how well the PAC-12 did SU and ATS as a conference last week; the best ATS conference in the country in Week 1.

Cal is clearly a ‘bet-on’ team for this bettor.  Auburn is on the other end of the spectrum right now with Hugh Freeze taking over for Bryan Harsin as head coach; a ‘three different head coaches in the last four years’ scenario that is rarely a positive thing for internal team chemistry.  Auburn didn’t win a road game last year.  They’re breaking in a new QB; they’ve got legitimate concerns on the offensive line and their front seven on defense is anything BUT proven, gashed on the ground by UMass last week.  The outright upset would be no surprise for this bettor, but I’m taking the points in a game that I expect to come down to the wire.  Take California 

Line Parameter: 3% at +6 or higher, 2% at +5.5 or lower