Recent Play Details

3% Take Illinois (#351)

Illinois looks quite capable of competing for the Big 10 West title this year in a wide open division. If I’m right, this won’t be the last time we’re on the Illini this year, a legitimate ‘value’ team in part because of their ‘afterthought’ status in the conference, especially after their ‘non-cover’ on opening day last week.  Illinois certainly dominated non-conference play last year under Bielema, beating Wyoming 38-6 at -14, Virginia 24-3 at -3.5 and Chattanooga 31-0 at -20. The non-conference foes couldn’t move the football effectively against the stout Illini defense.  And with Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer taking over at QB, this offense looks plenty potent enough for a pointspread range like this one.

Last week, Illinois failed to cover as 8 (ish) point favorites against Toledo.  Two defensive penalties kept Toledo drives alive, resulting in an extra ten points for the Rockets; not something I expect a repeat of on Friday Night.  And the fact that the Illini were able to overcome a pair of second half deficits with Altmyer leading the offense has to be considered a confidence builder in tonight’s marquee matchup.

Kansas got off to a hot start last year, but the Jayhawks are just 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS in their last eight against Power 5 opponents in Year 3 of Lance Leopold’s rebuild.  Six of those losses came by a TD or more; allowing five TD’s or more every time.  Even with QB Jalon Daniels (back) upgraded to probable, Kansas’s defense is not a D worthy of laying points with tonight.  Take Illinois

Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower