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Texans (1PM ET CBS) – The way it shakes out for us we are going to be BUSY in the Week 1 1PM ET wave as we move on to the second of at least three moves when the Baltimore Ravens battle the Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland.

I have to jump in and take the 10 points as here we have a team I bet over their season win total (the Texans) against a team I bet under their season win total (the Ravens).  By no means does that force me to be involved here but my reasoning for fading the Ravens long term and having the Texans as a BET ON play in this matchup and that’s enough to get me to the window to fade the inflated favorite.  I love what Houston did in the offseason, they went all in on the draft to get their starting quarterback in CJ Stroud and a stud defensive end in Will Anderson.  Houston drafted well throughout, I liked what I saw out of their young players in the preseason (I was 2-0 backing the Texans in the preseason) and think Houston will be EXTREMELY undervalued against the number early this year. Houston’s main redeeming quality last season was their defense, the Texans were solid against the pass and their defense kept what was otherwise a BAD team in quite a few games.  Baltimore improved on paper by going out and grabbing O’Dell Beckham Jr. but I question if he’s truly a #1 at this point and if that transforms this Ravens offense overnight.  Baltimore has issues along their offensive line which is a HUGE deal since this Ravens offense is built around the run and protecting what I consider to be a very overrated quarterback in Lamar Jackson.  I think the Ravens are going to have to really earn their points against an underrated Texans defense in this matchup and I just don’t believe Baltimore has an efficient enough offense at this point to score enough to win this game by double digits. 

Houston still has a long way to go but the Texans offense couldn’t be much worse than it was last season so I will call for some improvement in 2023.  CJ Stroud will make mistakes as he gets acclimated to life in the NFL but his raw ability makes him a better option than what the Texans had at any point last season.  Baltimore’s defense is suspect, the Ravens had a bottom 10 defense in the NFL last season and didn’t do anything to improve this shoddy defensive unit in the offseason. Baltimore still gets credit for being a good defensive team because of a decade plus of great defenses but the reality is THIS Ravens team is average at best defensively.  The big question here is can Stroud and this Houston offense move the ball, I don’t think anyone truly knows the answer to that but what I do know is I’m FAR more confident in the Texans ability to make plays on offense this season as opposed to last year’s team.  Houston is banged up on the offensive line which goes against one of my wagering hallmarks (I like backing teams with strong offensive lines and fading teams with bad offensive lines) but I think Stroud’s mobility helps to offset some of the O-Line deficiencies and I think Houston can muster up enough blocking to allow their offense to make plays here. 

Houston isn’t going to roll into Baltimore and win a shootout, but I think this has the makings of a low scoring game and it’s difficult to win a game by more than 10 where points are at a premium.  Houston is great defensively, Anderson was a massive get for the Texans and with him I think the Texans could possibly be one of the better defenses in the NFL this season.  I see virtually zero “upside” with Baltimore, this is a team that’s being treated like a Super Bowl contender because of what they WERE for so long but in reality the Ravens are average defensively and have an offense that’s predicated on running the ball behind a very suspect offensive line.  I don’t think Lamar Jackson is a winner, unfortunately the Ravens missed their chance to move on from him and now are stuck with him for the foreseeable future.  Unless Jackson suddenly became a great passer and can fully utilize his new weapons at the receiver position I think the Ravens offense will be relatively easy for the Texans to prepare for and the Texans stout defense will have them in this game start to finish.  Play on Texans +10 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)