Recent Play Details

Buccaneers (1PM ET CBS) – If you are looking for NFL Football winners you came to the right place as I’ve won more NFL units on the site (+72.17 units gained) than anyone since the beginning of the 2021/22 season.  That’s back to back strong NFL campaigns, a stellar 59.2% strike rate and I’ll look to continue my dominance in the National Football League with my first 5% MAX BET of the regular season when the Minnesota Vikings battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Minnesota was the most fortunate team in the league last season, the Vikings had no business going 13-4 with their advanced metrics and the only reason I didn’t bet their season win total UNDER is because the books were sharp to this and put out a sharp line (over 8.5 is an extremely sharp line for a team that went 13-4 a season ago).  Instead where I will look to target the Vikings is against the spread when they are favored, I’ve started to come around on this Bucs team after watching them in the preseason and I’ve seen enough positives to warrant me jumping in for a 5% with the points here.  The Vikings should still be able to move the ball, which will win Minnesota some games, but I think SKOL has some big-time issues closing teams out with what I expect to be a horrific secondary.  Minnesota has no pass rush which means teams that can throw the ball should have a field day against this Vikings defense and teams should also be able to move down the field in garbage time when Minnesota is in prevent mode to secure a backdoor cover. I’m not overly high on Baker Mayfield but he did show some positive things on a BRUTAL Rams team toward the end of last season.  This isn’t a great Bucs team, but the Vikings aren’t very good either and this matchup should have both of these teams in a tight game wire to wire.

The one thing Tampa Bay did well last season was stop the run so it’s going to be on Kirk Cousins to get it done for the Vikings here.  Cousins will probably do that, he thrives in the lesser games that aren’t on a big time national stage and he’s also great when he’s not under a ton of pressure which he won’t be from the Buccaneers here. The reason I’m willing to roll the dice with the Bucs here is that it’s Week 1 which means Cousins hasn’t had many reps and might need time to build a rapport with new target Jordan Addison. In a game like this, Minnesota might not be ready to unleash their entire playbook (they have the Eagles coming up on a short week on Thursday night) so I could see the Vikings attempting to run the ball and having limited success in doing so.  Of course, if the game is on the line it will be put in the hands of Cousins to get the job done but if the game is “on the line” there’s also a strong chance our +6 is good.  Even if Minnesota is able to land the knock out blow (which presumably puts them ahead enough to cover) it will still be on their defense to get a stop and I think one side or the other of that scenario plays out in our favor. 

I’m not expecting huge things out of Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense but I think the Vikings defense is a good matchup for just about any team in the league as it stands at present.  Minnesota doesn’t have much of a pass rush so the fact Tampa Bay has a shoddy offensive line won’t matter as much here.  I already discussed the Vikings atrocious secondary and, while it’s Mayfield and not Manning back there, the Bucs still have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and a very capable receiving corps so I expect Mayfield to be able to deliver the ball and his skill players to make plays.  I also think the Buccaneers might be able to run the ball respectably in spite of their poor offensive line (the Vikings might have to drop guys off in coverage) so I’ll go as far as to say I think Tampa Bay might move the ball consistently here.

What I don’t see is the Buccaneers being overmatched here and I think the oddsmakers have booked this to need Tampa Bay in this situation.  The -6 is appealing to the betting public since they only need Minnesota to win by a touchdown but, in all honesty, I’ll be surprised if the Vikings win this one at all let alone by seven or more.  Play on Buccaneers +6 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)