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Browns (1PM ET CBS) – We have a busy 1PM wave of games on the first Sunday of the NFL season with the third of three early kicks coming in an AFC North in state rivalry when the Cleveland Browns take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. 

I’ve been talking the Browns up all summer so I’m somewhat committed to backing them as a home dog here.  I absolutely love the potential for this Cleveland team, I have a bet on the Browns at +125 to make the playoffs and sprinkled a long shot bet on the Browns to win the Super Bowl.  Cleveland’s defense should be considerably better this season, their offensive line is now healthy and one of the best units in the league and if they get ANYTHING whatsoever out of Deshaun Watson the Browns WILL be one of the better teams in the AFC this season.  On the other side is a Cincinnati team that is a legitimate Super Bowl contender but also a team that has never matched up well with the Browns and who will have a banged up Joe Burrow under center in this game.  Regardless of the quotes coming out of Cincinnati media I don’t think Burrow is anywhere near 100 percent and I think a possible lack of mobility could see him struggle against a Browns pass rush that abused this Bengals offensive line a season ago.  Even if Burrow was 100 percent I would give the Browns a great chance to win this game at home because I thik the Browns are that good.  With Burrow clearly compromised I think the Bengals will be fighting an uphill battle to try to win AND cover on the road here. 

Last season Burrow and the Bengals came to Cleveland on Halloween night and were blown out in a game that was never close.  The Browns played one of their best games of the season, a Cleveland defense that had been struggling rediscovered their pash rush and THAT performance out of the Browns is what I think we see from Cleveland on a regular basis this season. There’s no question (in my opinion) this Browns defense will be really good, the question marks on the Cleveland side are on the offense which will need Deshaun Watson to play well to have legitimate success this season.  Many are judging Cleveland based on what Watson did last year but I think that’s a bit harsh since Watson spent a full season out of football and wasn’t able to play the first 12 weeks of the season.  Watson didn’t play all that well but I think with a full offseason to get back to “normal” and a normal NFL Preseason we will see Watson far more “ready” to start this season.  Cleveland can lean on their elite run game and elite offensive line so Watson only needs to be good, not great, for the Browns to have success here.

If Watson is great, or better yet, resembles his 2020 self at all, the Browns offense could be REALLY good.  We know Cleveland will be able to run the ball but if Watson can make throws he could exploit a Bengals secondary that I would consider their main weakness on defense. The Bengals have a respectable defensive front but when the Browns have a healthy offensive line I truly feel Cleveland and Nick Chubb can run the ball on anyone.  There are only a couple running backs in the NFL that move the needle on their own but Chubb is one of those guys and him behind THIS offensive line is borderline unfair.  Even if Watson isn’t doing much and the Bengals are able to stack the box I’m still not sure they stop Cleveland’s run game and that will have the Browns in the game here.

The way Cincinnati wins and covers this game is scoring at will but I think it’s unlikely for that to happen on the road with Burrow banged up.  I think Cincinnati might try to run the ball and play more of a possession game than we are used to seeing from them which should keep this game close regardless.  If Cincinnati isn’t allowed to pull away we will be in play with the +2.5 but I think this Browns team is better than anyone expects and I’ll call for a convincing Cleveland win here.  Play on Browns +2.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)