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Baylor (12PM ET ESPN) – It was a forgettable first week of College Football but so was last season and we still finished with a solid +27 unit year and have raked in +55 units of profit across the past two College Football seasons. Baylor is playing from behind as well, as the Bears opened their season with a dreadful loss to Texas State, but I think Baylor is better than they showed last week and I expect them to bounce back with a better performance against the #12 Utah Utes at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas.

It was an inexcusable opening week for Baylor as the Bears were dominated on their home field by Texas State.  Baylor rolled up 524 yards of total offense but couldn’t get stops as Texas State put up 441 yards of their own and left Waco with a shock 42-31 win.  Baylor will be without quarterback Blake Shapen, which is part of the reason for the line move, but my good friend and Baylor insider CT Bets has been telling me that Sawyer Robertson is the better option since the spring.  Another reason for the move is the likelihood of Utah quarterback Cameron Rising getting action in this game but he’s coming back from an ACL injury so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he splits time with Bryson Barnes or doesn’t play at all here. Barnes was serviceable in the win over Florida but that was an overrated Gators team in a game where Barnes had all summer to prepare.  If it’s Rising he won’t be anywhere near 100% and likely not his usual dynamic self while I would be shocked if Barnes is as effective here with standard preparation time for this game.  On the road at Waco is a lot different than a night game in Salt Lake City and all that leads me to believe the Utes are overvalued here.

 I’m perfectly fine jumping in at +7.5 because I don’t want to miss that number and see this move back to +7 but shop around because some of the more public PPH sites are still hanging +8.5 for Baylor here.  Baylor simply needs to clean some stuff up, there are seniors on the defense so their effort against Texas State is inexcusable and the Bears offensive line should improve with some tweaked organization.  We should see a natural boost as far as intensity is concerned for Baylor since, instead of “lowly” Texas State, it’s now nationally ranked Utah coming to town in a game Baylor has likely had circled all summer.  Baylor’s defense was a mess down the stretch last season, it’s carried over into this year but I’m not sure a Barnes led Utah team will be able to fully exploit the Bears defensive inefficiencies.  I also think Utah would be insane to put Rising into harm’s way (if they don’t have to) so if he does get in this game it’s likely a pedestrian playbook to get his feet wet with a focus on running the ball.  It’s not to say Utah won’t do those things well but, even if they do, it’s still difficult to beat a capable opponent by more than a touchdown on the road.  The argument here is going to be if Baylor is still “capable”, I think they are and I’m not going to let one bad performance put me off the Bears being able to hang around with anyone on their home field, including a good Utah team. 

It was shocking to see Baylor not be able to get the run game going against Texas State but last year’s star running back Richard Reese barely factored and I think we might see a change in game plan here.  Utah had no problem stopping a Florida offense that looked awful with Graham Mertz under center but I don’t think that guarantees the Utes go on the road and shut down Baylor here.  I do think Utah has improved defensively but I think that ends up being offset by potential big issues for the Utes on offense here.  Utah won convincingly last week but only put up 270 yards of total offense (outgained) and I don’t see Utah’s offense being in any better shape here. If it is in fact Barnes that ends up playing I fully expect him to play worse than he did against Florida without a full summer to prepare for the game.  If it's Rising, Utah will be in better shape but I could see that leading the Utes to call a more conservative game.  Either way I’m just not seeing how this amounts to a road win by more than a touchdown for the Utes so give me the points with what should be a very hungry home dog here.  Play on Baylor +7.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)