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In the opening fight on the main card for UFC 293, Tyson Pedro faces Anton Turkalj…

There is a clear overreaction to Tyson Pedro's last fight and market has overcorrecting itself. 

Let's dig in…

To start, I truly believe Tyson Pedro is better everywhere. Whether it plays out on the feet, clinch work or on the ground I'm very comfortable with Pedro in this spot. Over his last 3 bouts Tyson was lined at -620, -740 & -250 and now we're getting him at +100 against a guy with less experience and overall ability? Ok, count me in. Overreaction steaming from Pedro's last fight against Modestas Bukauskas in which Tyson was flat and appeared gassed early losing as a sizeable favorite. Since then Tyson said he came into that fight very sick and almost pulled out. Now take that with a grain of salt but if true it would make sense why he lacked explosiveness. With that said he battled until final bell but yet this performance pushing odds to dog money and absolutely disagree with line movement. Prior to that fight against Modestas, Pedro had back to back KO wins over Henry Hunsucker and Ike Villanueva. Now I know I know, that's not the highest level of competition, still Pedro did what he should do and finish these bums early. While Anton Turkalj got his crack at the UFC on Dana White's Contender Series 3 fights ago. It was a very lackluster showing from Anton basically holding his opponent Acacio dos Santos down causing little damage. On the feet Dos Santos was landing hard displaying the nonexistent striking defense Turkalj possesses, clinging on for dear life each round holding Dos Santos. Unimpressive decision. Next he got ran through in round 1 via submission by a very good Jailton Almedia on short notice, so can't fully blame him there. Most recently Anton faced Vitor Petrino who also was one fight removed from his Dana White Contender Series win. Sloppy fight where once again Anton's blocking punches with his face swinging wildly in hopes of latching on to opponent somehow. Limited ability to correctly defend a simple 1,2 combination or appear to even understand the basics. Yes Petrino is explosive, but his cardio is weak and even with depleted strength Petrino out grappled Turkalj winning all rounds. The biggest red flag on Anton is his consistency in making horrible grappling decisions. Many times in a controlling position will forces a mistakes getting reversed or incorrect foot placement for takedowns. Against Petrino even the announcers seemed shocked how unknowledgeable Anton was in grappling. Missing easy spots to control better or allowing opponent to gain top control. Against lower level opposition most wont make you pay, but Tyson Pedro will. With a black belt in jiu-jitsu and higher level experience I believe it closes out any real grappling threat from Anton. On the feet? Well, if it stays on the feet Tyson's going to knock Anton out with a far more array of weapons and footwork. Overall the more technical striker backed by power. 

Let's also sprinkle in the fact this fight is taking place on Tyson Pedro's home soil in Australia. Just sayin…

5% MAX PLAY: Tyson Pedro (+100)