Recent Play Details

5% Big Ticket: Take Miami (#473)

The last time we saw the Chargers, they were blowing a 27-0 lead at Jacksonville in the playoffs; the third biggest blown playoff lead in NFL history and the first team in the history of the league to lose a playoff game with a +5 turnover margin (0-19 previously).  That’s not a great way to go into an offseason; this is a hangover that could linger.

The Chargers have elite frontline talent.  What they don’t have is depth.  Coach Brandon Staley kept his starters on the sidelines throughout the preseason because injuries could crush this team.  I’m not convinced they’ll be in mid-season rhythm here in Week 1.  LA has scored 20 and 24 points in their first two season openers under Staley; not a team that has shown a propensity for clicking on all cylinders on opening day.

When it comes to homefield advantages, LA’s ‘second team’ doesn’t have much.  They left San Diego for LA in 2017.  Since that time, they haven’t enjoyed a single winning ATS season in the ‘home favorite’ role; 13-20 ATS when laying points at home.

LA did beat Miami at home last year 23-17, arguably Tua Tagovailoa’s worst game as a pro – he finished just 10-28 for 145 yards.  This is very much a statement game for Tua and head coach Mike McDaniel here; an offense that was flummoxed in this venue last year as Miami lost four consecutive one score games down the stretch.

Make no mistake about it – the 2023 Miami Dolphins are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.  Let’s not forget that Miami was a bottom five turnover differential team last year; primed for improvement in 2023 – it’s most assuredly not a ‘structural’ problem for a team with a solid QB and a defense loaded with playmakers. 

My power rating numbers have the Dolphins as the better of these two teams.  Catching a field goal on opening day, that’s worthy of a ‘step-up’ sized wager for this bettor!  Big Ticket: Take the Dolphins.

Line Parameter: 5% at +3 or higher, 4% at +2.5 or lower