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(459) Jacksonville Jaguars at (460) Indianapolis Colts

Going to lay this one out a little differently for everyone…rather than a customary journalistic style writeup I'm listing my notes on this play from a podcast that I recently did as a guest…here they are

Value Advantage - Looking for lines that are going to “run” once the recreational/public bettors get around to playing Week #1 games

No way Jacksonville will be -3.5 come game day or even opening week / more likely to be -5 or -5.5 once the ultra excited NFL bettors start playing 

No tickets are cashed just because you got Closing Line Value (CLV) but it’s always good to have for long term success

Experience Advantage to Jacksonville

Jacksonville now building stability in 2nd season under HC Doug Pedersen / (figure QB Trevor Lawrence & offense to be even more explosive)

Colts in re-building stage with one the NFL’s youngest rosters / New Coaching Staff / New Systems / New Rookie QB 

Fundamental Matchup Advantages

Jacksonville passing game vs Indianapolis pass defense

Jaguars receiving corps - Addition of vertical threat Calvin Ridley (drawing rave reviews) / Zay Jones / Christian Kirk / TE Evan Engram (signed to franchise tag) / Travis Etienne

Vs. Colts suspect pass rush & rookie CB’s -  Colts lose CB Stephon Gilmore and SS Rodney McLeod / Young CB’S have to learn DC Gus Bradley’s system

Does not help that previously projected CB starter Isaiah Rodgers has a likely gambling suspension coming

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence went 45/52/86.5% in the two games vs Indianapolis last season and important to note those 2 games came in the first 6 weeks when Jags were 2-4 and just learning the new staffs systems

Expect the passing game with the help of an improved OL & the ground game led by Etienne to exploit the Colts pass defense

Jacksonville DC Mike Caldwell vs Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson in his 1st start 

Richardson’s skill set under the teaching of new HC Shane Steichen has a chance to be really good down the road but 1st game vs. an NFL DC…I’ll take my chances

Richardson’s accuracy ?able all throughout his college career…especially short to intermediate range

Expect Jaguars defense to focus on stopping Indy RB Jonathan Taylor (OL couldn’t open many holes last season) 

Use disguised coverages to try and force Richardson into bad decisions

Play to keep Richardson in the pocket and at times send blitzes to hurry him

He’s still talented enough to makes some plays but limiting him & the ground game figures to be enough here

Power Ratings 

End of 2022 season PR show Jacksonville would be -3 @ Indianapolis and this line is -3.5

Fully believe that there’s been at least an additional one point edge gained by Jacksonville over the Colts in the offseason and especially since this game is in Week #1 

Technicals

Jacksonville closed last season on a 7-1 ats run and even though the Jaguars are a bandwagon team to win the AFC South…not sure that same enthusiasm is in this number

Recent Notes

The current status of the Colts RB room as of July 31 with #1 RB Jonathan Taylor demanding to be traded and #2 RB Zack Moss breaking his arm (out indefinitely) leaves Indy currently depth shy quality & experience wise