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4% Take Atlanta (#454)

Carolina might be a decent team by the time December rolls around but don’t underestimate the growing pains that we can expect from the Panthers in early season play.  The Panthers have a new head coach, coaxing Frank Reich to return to the sidelines.  They have a first-year, first-time offensive coordinator in Thomas Brown, and a defensive coordinator with one year of previous experience in that role in Ejiro Evero.  They’ll be starting a rookie QB in his NFL debut on the highway. Not exactly a ‘positive expectation’ track record.   

The Panthers come into the season with clear weaknesses on both sides of the football.  This team has no #1 receiver and no game breakers at RB either; not a squad primed for many big play, quick strike touchdowns.  Multiple projected starting offensive linemen are coming off serious, season-ending injuries; no sure thing to excel in Week 1.  Defensively, they’re switching from a 4-3 scheme to a 3-4 scheme – again, expect growing pains --- and their secondary has plenty of question marks.  Carolina is rebuilding, and they know it – there’s no ‘win now’ urgency for the Panthers in Week 1.

The Falcons won seven games last year despite having a whopping $63 million of ‘dead money’ on their salary cap, an overachieving team under second-year head coach Arthur Smith.  This year, the rebuilding is over, and the Falcons are expecting to win.  Atlanta poured a small fortune into their roster during free agency now that all that dead money was cleared from their salary cap.  They completely restocked the defense, bringing in Calais Campbell, Jessie Bates, Jeff Okudah, Bud Dupree, David Onyemata, and Kaden Ellis, all potential starters.  On offense, they added Mack Hollins, Jonnu Smith, and Scotty Miller, joining former #1 picks Drake London and Kyle Pitts, as well as this year's #1 Bijon Robinson.  We’re talking about a massive talent upgrade: 17 free agent signings with $188 million in contracts handed out.  From a talent standpoint, this roster is as stocked as it’s been in any season since their last Super Bowl run.

I’m an Arthur Smith believer, based on the dozens of quotes from his players over the past two years, talking about how much they respected him and believed in what he was trying to accomplish.  This year – Year 3 of the Smith era – they’re primed to show some real progress, starting right here in Week 1.  Short chalk worth laying!  

Take the Falcons

Line Parameter: 4% at -3 or lower, 3% at -3.5 or higher