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FINNs ALL-MLB ALL-THURSDAY ALL-ACCESS I - Mets at Cubs Total Under 8.5 (-113) | List Carrasco and Hendricks if necessary and the over-under position in this National League contest is good to 8 runs 
3% game rating
Starting Pitchers: List Carrasco and Hendricks 
Home Plate Umpire: Roberto Ortiz is pitcher-friendly. In tonight's matchup, the return of right-handed veteran Henricks is a plus for arguably one of the few finesse pitchers that remain as one of a team's First-Five. Ortiz is a near-perfect match for Hendricks and his return to active duty, his first start since last July. Ortiz also benefits Carrasco, and it isn't outside of the box to label Carrasco as needing a ball or two tonight to be called a strike. The Mets' starter has been everything but sharp and reliable. Carrasco is getting almost no swings and misses inside of the league's Kzone parameters.
Weather: The forecast for Wrigley Field calls for cool temps off Lake Michigan with a 10-15 mph wind blowing in from left-centerfield. There is no precip expected this afternoon or tonight. 

Chicago hands the ball to Hendricks for the finale of this week's series versus the New York Mets. Following Wednesday's 4-2 win over the Mets, Cubs manager David Ross made a decision and therefore announced, Hendricks would be activated from the injured list today for a turn against the Metropolitans.  

The start will be Hendricks' first outing for the North Siders since July of last season. The 33-year-old veteran has been working his way back from a capsular tear in his right shoulder. Beyond rehabbing from the injury sustained last year, the veteran righty has also been getting used to an altered arm path, a new release point, in his delivery. It was a lengthy process leading up to Thursday's return. In his past three Minor League rehab outings for Triple-A Iowa, Hendricks earned a 1.69 ERA with 14 strikeouts and two walks over 16 innings.

Hendricks was built up to 82 pitches over six frames in his start against Indianapolis on Saturday. In his recent games, Hendricks' fastball velocity was also back up to the 89-90 mph range, which marked the highest stadium gun readings since 2021.  

"In a Triple-A rehab start Saturday, Kyle Hendricks (strained right shoulder) allowed one run in six innings. It was his fifth rehab outing and his third of at least five innings. “Felt really good after his outing,” the Cubs' skipper told the media. “I don’t know how he is today. Just making sure he’s not sore, then try to look at a slot where we might be able to line him up in the rotation, given everything is healthy,” Ross added.

Hendricks is a pitcher with a fluid motion with the ability to pitch hurt. This is what he has done the last two seasons, or up until July of last summer. The right-hander's 4.80 ERA with a 4.82 FIP last season  -- in which he was limited to less than 100 innings across 16 starts was a period he was pitching hurt. Thus the surgery was in July of last year.

There has been little to no talk or acknowledgment from the Cubs front office or the coaching staff that Hendricks was pitching hurt in 2021 as well when he closed the campaign with a 4.77 ERA and a 4.89 FIP.

Healthy and sporting a 90 mph four-seamer the Cubs righty earned consistent and reliable numbers. Hendricks had a six-year run in which he compiled a 3.17 ERA and a 3.55 FIP.

What we will get from Hendricks tonight is no secret and if a pundit attempts to tell you that no person knows what the Cubs' starter will bring to the table has no idea what he or she is talking about.

His five rehab starts were nothing to get excited about but that is contrary to the Cubs scouting team and those running the show behind the scenes, on the farm, got exactly what they wanted from Hendricks in his rehab work.

Carlos Carrasco comes into today's meet against the Cubbies with an 8.68 ERA. The vets underlying numbers are a bit better than his surface digits but that wasn't difficult to do and should be expected. Consider that in his last start the Mets' righthanded veteran surrendered five runs on five hits isn't disastrous or the end of civilization as we know it. However, Carrasco surrendered the five and five to an offensively challenged Cleveland roster. 
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He’s given up 18 runs in 18.2 innings this season and has only one more punchout than walk surrendered (11 strikeouts against 10 walks). Carrasco has lost nearly two mph with his four-seamer, with his Velo being down across the board with his arsenal.

Ortiz is a plus-plus for Carrasco tonight. The Cubs are better blindfolded at the plate than are the Guardians. Ortiz does enough to keep Carrasco from flaming out tonight but all things equal as much as I fell head over heels for the game total backing Hendricks over Carrasco on the side is a plus-plus situation just as much as a play Under the Total is. 

Mets at Cubs Total Under 8.5 (-113) | List Carrasco and Hendricks