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FINNs NBA EAST FINALS 5% BIG TICKET  -  Boston Celtics Team Total Over 111.5 (-115) – the Big Ticket Team Total is good to 112.5 points
5% game rating

Just two days ago the Eastern Conference title talk was how the East Finals mismatch had flipped scripts with Miami on the verge of covering and sweeping straight up over the Boston troupe.

The books finally made an adjustment in Game 4 positioning the Heat as the favorite for the first time in the best-of-seven series and forming the team favored in the individual game matchups that have failed to cover or even win.

We fast forward to Game 5 in Boston and it is if no game has been played, as of today, in the matchup to determine who will represent the East in the Association Championship. The Celtics have returned to the same handicap they held in Game 1 and Game 2 of the East Finals.

The game total hasn't made a significant move, and all things equal the spread, outside of Game 4 in Miami, the bookmakers are not interested in falling to the right or the left and taking a chance that a major adjustment to the side and total in this series is necessary.

The absence of Gabe Vincent tonight hasn't made a spread or total impact on the opening number. Vincent is not being looked at as a contributor in any fashion, with little to no true line value.  Vincent will miss tonight's game to a sprained ankle and whether the books put a value on Vincent or not the veteran has a place, digitally, in the line for tonight's game..

The spread at the time of this breakdown being published at the WT site finds the Celtics as 8.5 point home chalk. Vincent has started each of the postseason games for Boston this spring and his value comes in a number of forms.

Vincent is more of a defensive plus for the Heat than an offensive and his absence forces the Heat to play more deliberately and play the games cautiously due to the lack of depth at the point.

Vincent has averaged 14.8 points per game on 54.5% shooting from the floor and his absence tonight, which follows a rash of injuries the Heat have experienced in the backcourt, will force the Heat to be creative tonight with Boston back on home wood.

Not buying into Boston at some level, to earn a win tonight and force a Game 6, is a mistake.

The Celtics were easily one of the better home teams this season. Heading into tonight's event the Irish are 66-33 overall and 55-44 ATS. At home, the Celtics are 36-14 overall, 34-14 as a home favorite, and 28-22 against the number at TD Garden. In the total container, Boston is 31-19 to the Over at home.

With the defensive prowess of Gabe Vincent all but one of the games have gone Over the Total in this series. That one was Game 4 and it failed to go north because the home team, Miami, chose to eat the final 18 seconds of the clock and dribble out missing going over by a point or point-and-a-half depending on your shop.

The shorthanded backcourt of the Heat will push them into a more deliberate mode in half-court offensive sets and it should encourage the Celtics to push the pace with the goal of the Heat backcourt, absent Vincent and Herro, to be grabbing at their shorts for most of the game with fatigue being an issue in more than one way.

Boston has shown that they are not going to win by being defensive, unless you consider scoring in transition, off both makes and misses by Miami, which creates a sense of desperation for the Celtics opponents, when in fact Boston is playing with the lead.

If this game comes in Under the Total, currently 216, it won't be due to lack of shot attempts or pace, it will come to fruition because of fatigue and that fatigue will come in the form of a Miami Heat player, hell a Miami Heat squad.

For Boston to not exceed their Team Total tonight the reasons are few, but inside of those few reasons would be the consideration of the coaching staff failing to emphasize the importance of pace to a shorthanded team with a short bench. The Celtics would have to miss nearly 70 percent of their contested shots inside of the arc tonight not to reach 112 points or more. And again, if this happens it is as much the fault of the leadership of Boston, the coaching staff, as it is the players. 

If the Celtics need a reminder that they have been the best 1st Quarter/1st Half team in terms of covering numbers and scoring points let's petition the franchise to be transferred out of the Association and into the D-League. 

Boston Celtics Team Total Over 111.5 (-115)