Recent Play Details

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3% Boston 1H (8:35 ET): First off, please note that this is a play on just the first half, not the entire game. The Celtics now have life after taking Game 4, 116-99 as a one-point underdog. I took them on the money line Tuesday night, recognizing that the oddsmakers had made a sizable adjustment from Game 3 (when Boston closed -4.5). Now the series shifts back to Beantown and the Celtics are big favorites to take Game 5. I believe that they will win here, but am not interested in laying the full game spread as Game 4 was just the 17th time all season that the Heat lost a game by nine or more points. 

But I will lay the number with Boston in the first half. Here’s why. They have been the league’s best 1H team all season with a +9.2 net rating. That net rating jumps to +12.7 at home in the playoffs. Miami, despite being one win away from the NBA Finals, has actually been pretty poor in first halves this postseason, at least on the road where their net rating is -6.7. For the season, the Celtics are outscoring opponents by an average of 6.5 points in the 1H at home. So it’s certainly been a bit of a surprise to see them trailing at the break each of the last three games. But remember that Game 1 here at home, they were up 66-57. 

Miami shot very poorly in Game 4, hitting just 25% from three (8 of 32) and 43.6% overall. They likely improve some here, but certainly won’t reach the heights of Game 3 when they hit 54.3% overall and 56.8% overall. Especially since Gabe Vincent, a key contributor for them this postseason, has been ruled out tonight (ankle). Boston had a big bounce back shooting effort in Game 4. While they may not shoot 51.2% overall or 40% from three again here, being at home should mitigate the regression somewhat. If the Celtics are to win this game and force a Game 6 (something only 14 teams have done when falling down 0-3 in a series), it’s hard for me to see them doing so without a strong first half. Lay the points. 3% Boston 1st Half (Play to -6.5)