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3% Mets/Cubs F5 Over (7:40 ET): Coming into this series, the Mets probably felt pretty good about themselves as they’d won five in a row, not only sweeping the Guardians (including a doubleheader on Sunday) but also taking two from the MLB-leading Rays. But all five of those Mets’ victories were by one run, which is a pretty fortunate thing to pull off, and wouldn’t you know it, the Mets have now dropped each of the first two games here at Wrigley, losing by scores of 7-2 and 4-2.  If that’s not bad enough, Carlos Carrasco is starting tonight and he hasn’t been very good this season; winless with an 8.68 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. 

And the Mets don’t even get to face Jameson Taillon anymore on Thursday. The Cubs had lost all seven of his starts this season and the numbers are pretty gross: 8.10 ERA and 1.73 WHIP overall, L3 starts: 13.03 ERA and 2.49 WHIP. So you can see why the decision was made to push him back to Saturday. Instead, it will be Kyle Hendricks making his first start since July 5th of last year after dealing with a shoulder injury. While a possible upgrade from Taillon, Hendricks still is a real question mark heading into this series finale for the Cubs. 

So with two questionable starters, both of whom have dealt with injuries, this total looks low to me. Even with a moderate wind set to be blowing in, I don’t have much confidence in either starter and think this game goes Over the total for the first five innings. The Mets are the only team in baseball without a 1st inning HR this season, a streak which eventually has to end. Not saying it will be here against Hendricks, but we should easily get to five runs through five innings. Carrasco has allowed 5+ runs himself in the first five innings of three of his four starts. 3% Mets/Cubs F5 Over (4.5 or lower, Play to -130)