Recent Play Details

3% Take Miami – Boston UNDER (#549-550)

The database clearly shows that Unders are the way to look as an NBA Playoff Series progresses.  By the time we get to Game 5 of any series, both defenses know just about everything the opposing offense wants to do, and Unders become ‘positive expectation’ plays.  Boston just shut down Miami in Game 4, holding the Heat to less than 100 points for the first time in the entire postseason.  The Heat won’t have their two best perimeter shooters, Tyler Herro or Gabe Vincent available this evening, and they’re coming off an 8-32 shooting performance from beyond the arc.  No surprise here if Miami struggles with their shooting once again this evening.

It’s not like these are weak defensive squads.  Both teams were Top 10 in defensive efficiency in the regular season; and neither squad has declined here in the playoffs.  Boston has held their opponent to 105 or less in half of their last ten playoff games, and they sure look like they had the Heat’s offense figured out in Game 4.  Miami has held their opponent to 105 or less in five of their last eight as well. Boston’s shooting has been ‘hit or miss’ for much of the postseason – if Jayson Tatum isn’t going off, they’re not lighting up the scoreboard.  After going off in Game 4, I’m expecting Miami to make defensive adjustments against Tatum tonight.  Look for a defensive struggle in Game 5 – first team to 100 wins…if either squad gets to 100.  Take the UNDER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 214 or higher, 2% at 213.5 or lower