Recent Play Details

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wt.buzz/db

4:05 PM ET -- MLB 

955 San Diego Padres    
956 Washington Nationals   

Play: 955 SAN DIEGO First 5 Innings RL -0.5 (-115)  

List Pitchers: Snell & Irvin     

Bet Size: 4% 

Line Parameters: 
4% play at -120 or better 
3% play at -121 to -125  
2% play at -126 to -130 

This is another one of those games where I look at the line and think it's off.  I operate under the thought that the oddsmakers are smarter than I am.  So, it sure looks to me like they want Nationals money here.

I mean, what have the Padres and Blake Snell done lately to warrant being this big of a road favorite?  San Diego's record is only a game better, Snell's 2023 numbers are equally as bad as Jake Irvin's, and the Padres are 0-4 in Snell's road starts.  The Nationals advanced metrics against LHP are far better than San Diego's numbers against RHP.

As for Snell, I like that he got shelled by the Red Sox in his last start.  In his career, Snell is 8-0 (Team's Record) as a favorite when he allowed more than 4 runs in his last start.

Jake Irvin's MLB resumé consists of 4 starts this season and he allowed 10 earned runs in 7.1 innings over his last two.  His 1/4 K/BB ratio in his last start is very concerning.  And in the only start in which he had a good K/BB ratio, he got lit up for 6 runs in 4.2 innings by the Mets.

Snell is a big road favorite here for a reason.  I like my chances of the Padres being up a run after 5 innings.