Recent Play Details

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wt.buzz/db

1:10 PM ET -- MLB 

963 Toronto Blue Jays    
964 Tampa Bay Rays   

Play: 963 TORONTO First 5 Innings RL +0.5 (-105)  

List Pitchers: Manoah & Eflin     

Bet Size: 4% 

Line Parameters: 
4% play at -110 or better 
3% play at -111 to -115
2% play at -116 to -120   

The Rays own MLB's best record.  They're 23-5 at home.  Zach Eflin's 2023 numbers are way better than Alek Manoah's.  And the Rays are at most -150 favorites here?  That looks a little low, in my opinion, which has me thinking Toronto is the right side.

Both teams smash RHP, so this comes down to the starting pitching matchup.  As I mentioned, Eflin's overall 2023 numbers are better than Manoah's by far.  But I see subtle signs that Manoah may be slowly rounding into form.

Manoah's last start was against Orioles five days ago.  He allowed just 2 runs in 5.2 innings, but the big thing for me is that he only walked 1 hitter.  Not only that, but his 5/1 K/BB ratio is tied for his best of the season.  His K's over his last three starts have gone from 1 to 3 to 5, which looks like a "buy" sign to me.  

I can excuse his second-to-last start because he was facing the Yankees for the second time in less than a month.  Outside of that rematch, Manoah hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in the other 5 of his last 6 starts.

And yes, I'm aware that these Rays torched Manoah for 7 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks in just 4.2 innings in Toronto on April 16th.  I actually think that helps Manoah here, as he should be able to make some necessary adjustments.  And even with that dominant offensive showing against him last month, these Rays hitters still only own a career .204 average, .249 wOBA, and .263 xSLG against Manoah.

Eflin appears to be headed in the opposite direction.  He produced a 2.25 ERA, 0.96 HR/9, and 13.6% HR/FB% over his first five starts of 2023.  But in his last three outings, Eflin owns a 5.21 ERA, 2.37 HR/9, and 20.8% HR/FB%.  Toronto's advanced metrics show them to be better than the teams Eflin faced in those last three starts.

I think it's a reasonable expectation for the Jays to be at least tied after 5 innings, so I definitely don't mind taking a half-run at -105.