Recent Play Details

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wt.buzz/db

12:35 PM ET -- MLB 

951 St. Louis Cardinals    
952 Cincinnati Reds   

Play: 951 ST. LOUIS First 5 Innings RL -0.5 (-110) 

List Pitchers: Mikolas & Weaver     

Bet Size: 4% 

Line Parameters: 
4% play at -115 or better 
3% play at -116 to -120 
2% play at -121 to -125 

The Cardinals will be looking to leave Cincinnati with a 4-game split.  I don't know if they get it since I have no faith in bullpens, especially road pens.  But I do think they have the lead through 5 innings.

Game 1 was a lefty vs. lefty matchup, won by the Reds.  Game 2 was righty vs. righty, won by the Cards.  Game 3 last night was lefty vs. righty, won by the Reds.  The Reds are 9-0 at home against LHSP this season, but just 2-10 as a home dog vs. RHSP, averaging 3 runs per game (1-4 and 2.6 rpg during the day).  Miles Mikolas is a righty.

The Cardinals own MLB's #5 wRC+ against RHP (113) and that number is 137 (37% above average) over the last two weeks.  St. Louis has averaged 5.9 runs in 7 games as a road favorite against a righty.  Two of those games were during the day and they scored exactly 7 runs in each.

The Reds own a weak 85 wRC+ against RHP and that drops to 82 at home (27th in MLB).  Their struggle against RHP should continue today, as Mikolas is 4-0 (Team's record) in his career as a daytime road favorite when his team is off a loss, winning by an average score of 10-4.5.