No one has been better at home this season than Tampa Bay for a variety of reasons. The Rays currently rank 1st in OPS, 2nd in runs per game, and 1st in home runs by a wide margin. Alek Manoah is on the “fade” list as the Blue Jays have now lost his past 4 starts and 6 of his last 7. Even with the poor performance, Manoah is still due for more regression. He has a 6.26 FIP that’s significantly higher than his 5.15 ERA. Manoah’s strikeout to walk ratio is terrible and the rest of his analytics sit at the bottom of the league as well. He has a hard hit% of 42.8, a wOBA of .375, and a low whiff%. Manoah faced the Rays earlier this season, giving up 7 earned in 4.2 innings. Zach Eflin’s ERA is a good indication of how he’s pitched this year. The Rays have won 7 of his 8 starts and he has a chase rate that’s in the 95th percentile. Eflin has also only walked 2.7% of the batters he’s faced. Take the Rays.
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