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Lotte Giants (5:30AM ET Naver TV) – We sweep KBO on Wednesday morning and that’s now a 6-2 run in KBO with things starting to move in the right direction. I’ll look to keep that going on Thursday morning in the finale of a three game set between the Lotte Giants and the NC Dinos at Busan Sajik Baseball Stadium in Busan, South Korea. 

A couple weeks ago on Twitter Spaces I said I time would come when I was going to try to make a case for Lotte starting pitcher Se-Woong Park and that time is now.   Two years ago Park was my “cash cow” as he broke out for a career year with a 3.98 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.  I did well playing on or against Park last season (there was a stretch where he was burnt out and an obvious fade) and I finally got my “buy sign” in recent weeks where I think it’s reasonable to suggest Park starts to “pitch to his numbers”.  The thing that was most glaring (that I’ve pointed out a couple times on Spaces) was how high Park’s WHIP was this far into the season.  What that means is Park was putting a ridiculous number of guys on base but over his last two starts he’s given up just two runs across 11 innings pitched, walks are down and strikeouts are up and Park is starting to look like the front end domestic starter he’s been for Lotte the past couple seasons.  NC has gone cold offensively, the Dinos won yesterday but only scored three runs and have scored just four runs TOTAL over their past three games.  Park comes in heating up, NC’s offense comes in cold, and it looks like a good spot to back Lotte to take this series at home. 

Another reason I’m willing to back Lotte here is a fade of NC starting pitcher Yong-Jun Lee.  This is a very similar situation to the Dong-Ju Kim fade from yesterday in the respect I think Lee is a young guy that’s gotten off to a very hot start but likely won’t sustain what he’s doing now the rest of the way.  In very limited KBO exposure prior to this season Lee was absolutely hammered, he posted an 8.59 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in 22 KBO innings last season yet has found big time success as a starter for NC so far in 2023.  Kim from Doosan got off to a similarly hot start, I thought it might be smart to fade Kim his second time through the league and after Samsung’s win on Wednesday that strategy is now 3-0. Amazingly, this will be the first time a team is getting their second crack at Yong-Jun Lee, he shut Lotte out across six innings earlier this season but this Lotte lineup can hit and I expect the Giants to make the adjustments to be better offensively here.  NC’s bullpen is banged up right now and they needed their better arms to close out a 3-1 win on Wednesday so that’s another advantage for Lotte here.  Normally I would point to NC having a late inning pitching advantage (NC is second in KBO in bullpen ERA at 3.39) but injuries and bullpen usage even that out here.

When you take all of this into consideration there’s just no way Lotte should be a home underdog here.  If you throw out short term bias Park is clearly the better of these two starting pitchers and the guys that are actually available out of the bullpen for both teams make that even (if anything it probably favors Lotte).  Lotte has one of the bigger home field advantages (at least historically) in KBO, the Giants are playing over .600 ball at home this season and I think they take the series rubber match here.  Play on Lotte Giants +105 for 4% (or 4 units)