Recent Play Details

3% Take San Diego (#905) (listed pitchers)

I’m listing pitchers here because the Padres don’t have a good option if Ryan Weathers gets scratched, but make no mistake about it – this is not a bet based on any perceived starting pitching edge for the Padres.  Weathers has allowed nine runs in four previous starts; Trevor Williams has allowed two runs or less in five of his nine trips to the hill.  There’s no legit edge for the Padres, starting pitching wise.

But in every other aspect of the game, the Padres have significant edges – they’re road chalk here for good reason.  Yes, the Padres have underachieved early, but they’ve just won back-2-back games for the first time since the first week of May, pounding out 14 runs in the process – a ‘buy’ sign.  Manager Bob Melvin: “We know we are capable of doing these things.”  The Padres have been better on the highway than at home in each of the last two seasons – their fearsome lineup sees scoring deflated at home in Petco.  Still four games under .500 for the season, there’s money to be made riding the Padres as they move up in the standings.

Washington is a last place team that has played sub .400 baseball in DC this season.  They went 26-55 at home last year – much like San Diego, the Nationals are a team I’d rather back on the highway – there’s no homefield edge here whatsoever.  They’re 2-5 in their last seven games, and from a ‘late game bullpen’ standpoint, this game is a mismatch – San Diego ranks in the Top 5 in bullpen ERA, Washington is in the bottom quartile.  Lay it or don’t play it!  Take the Padres.

Line Parameter: 3% at -159 or lower, 2% at -160 or higher