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White Sox/Guardians Over (1:10PM ET NBCSCH, BSGL, MLB.TV) – A huge bounce back on Wednesday morning with a 2-0 sweep in KBO and I’m going to look to ride that momentum into a MLB matinee when the Cleveland Guardians take on the Chicago White Sox in the rubber match of a three game set at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

We are two months into the MLB season and right around even overall but totals have been profitable to this point (while sides have not) so I’m going to switch things up to focus more on the totals market and we will start here. Let’s work backwards, the White Sox bullpen has been lights out of late but this unit was so bad through the first month and a half of the season it’s probably nothing more than some overdue positive regression.  The White Sox bullpen has a 1.17 ERA over their past 10 games, while I never thought this was the worst bullpen in the league it certainly isn’t the best so at some point guys like Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman (who have both been on fire of late) are going to get hit and the White Sox are going to concede some late inning runs.  The Guardians bullpen is elite but that’s known and probably a reason for this total being as low as it is.  A reason I’m willing to oppose them here is the White Sox late breakthrough yesterday and the fact there’s familiarity between White Sox hitters and the Guardians top relievers.  With a total of 7.5 as long as late runs are a possibility you can’t ask for much more than that.  It’s also possible we won’t need many to cash here. 

Another reason this total is 7.5 is the fact the Guardians have one of the least productive offenses in baseball at 3.52 runs per game.  It’s the worst mark in the American League but if there was ever a spot for an offensive breakout for the Guardians it would have to be against a team they have had a ton of exposure to and, thus, familiarity with their respective pitchers.  Michael Kopech gets the ball for the visitors, he was unhittable last time out in what ended up being the best start of his career but he’s been wildly inconsistent in during his big league career and even with that start still has a 4.83 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the season.  The Guardians have had limited exposure to Kopech but my angle here is the Guardians will have good at bats and get baserunners and this probably won’t be a long outing for Kopech as he’s yet to make it past the sixth inning after an outing of six innings or more this season.  If Kopech is throwing up zeros today the Guardians are going to make him work for it and Kopech isn’t exactly economical in the pitch/batter department which suggests he won’t fire eight innings again here.  As I’ve already stated I’m willing to oppose the White Sox bullpen (even with the good run of late they still have some of the worst bullpen metrics in the league) so at some point I think the Guardians do their part here.

I also like the White Sox to do their part as this team continues to improve and could take another step forward by blasting Guardians starter Cal Quantrill here.  Quantrill historically has been much better at Progressive Field but I think some of that is happenstance and I don’t think that means the White Sox cant light him up here.  Quantrill does have respectable numbers against the White Sox but this is a guy with a 4.06 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the season that’s given up three or more earned runs in more than half of his starts this season and there’s no reason that can’t happen again here. The White Sox haven’t put gaudy offensive numbers up the past few games but this is a team that’s won six of their last eight and surging and I think they now have the confidence they lacked earlier in the year to score runs and win games.   They haven’t needed the big output to win the last few days but I do think they might need it here and, with a total this low, we are really only asking the White Sox to do their part here.  I think both teams get to three runs at some point which implies it has to at least get to 4-3.  I will take my chances that if that does happen this game doesn’t land seven and I’ll put my money on the over.  Play on Over 7.5 (-118) for 4% (or 4 units)