Recent Play Details

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wt.buzz/db

7:40 PM ET -- MLB 

909 New York Mets 
910 Chicago Cubs 

Play: UNDER 6.5 (+100)    

List Pitchers: Senga & Stroman

Bet Size: 3% 

Line Parameters: 
3% play at 6.5 (-105) or better  
2% play at 6.5 (-106) to 6.5 (-115)  

My MLB totals plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

Scary to play Under 6.5 in a 2023 MLB game, huh?  Well, scared money don't make money, as they say.  And, there have been 9 games this season with the total set at 6.5 and the Under went 7-2 in those games.

The weather is perfect for a Wrigley Field Under, which is one big reason why this total is so low.  It'll be in the mid-50s with the wind blowing IN from LCF at about 18 mph.  Another factor for me is having Bill Miller behind the plate.  Bill Miller is the ultimate "Under" home plate umpire.

Kodai Senga starts for the Mets.  These Cubs hitters have never faced Senga, which should give him the early-game edge.  I'll admit that Senga has not been good on the road.  But, the oddsmakers know that and still put 6.5 on the board.

Marcus Stroman starts for the Cubs.  This is actually Stroman's 5th home start with the Cubs with the total set at 6.5 and 3 of those first 4 stayed Under.

Going back to the 2020 season, there have been 13 Wrigley Field games with the total set at 6.5 (not including a 7-inning double-header game).  The Under went 10-3 in those games.

Bottom line: The conditions are ripe for an Under here.  Sometimes the line really does tell the story.  I'm ignoring my hatred of bullpens here because I expect most people to see this super-low total at Wrigley and automatically bet the Over, only to have the books clean up.