Recent Play Details

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***** PSA: 5% MAX BET does NOT mean betting all the money you have.  It also does NOT mean betting money you don't have.  It simply means 5% of your bankroll is the most we will ever bet on any single play, and that is what we are betting on this one.  BE SMART!  BET SMART! *****

6:40 PM ET -- MLB 

915 Toronto Blue Jays   
916 Tampa Bay Rays   

Play: 916 TAMPA BAY First 5 Innings RL -0.5 (-120) 

List Pitchers: Kikuchi & McClanahan    

Bet Size: 5% 

Line Parameters: 
5% play at -130 or better 
4% play at -131 to -135  
3% play at -136 to -140 
2% play at -141 to -145  

Toronto snapped a 5-game losing streak by destroying the Rays last night, 20-1.  I like taking good teams at home off a loss, especially to a division rival.  And since 2012, road underdogs of more than +150 that are off a win against a division rival in which they scored at least 15 runs (like Toronto here) are 0-8 in the next game in that series, losing by an average score of 7.25-3.75.

Shane McClanahan gets the start for the Rays and he's the right guy to get Tampa Bay back on track.  McClanahan has only allowed a total of 4 runs in his 5 home starts this season, spanning 30 innings.  In his career, the Rays are 7-0 at home when McClanahan starts in May, which just so happens to be one of his best months statistically in his career.  It's a long season.  Teams ebb and flow, and so do individual players.  Pitchers are no different and this is McClanahan's time of year.  In his career, the Rays are 9-0 as division home chalk of at least -160 with McClanahan on the mound, winning by an average score of 5.6-1.7.

Toronto has been decent against LHP, producing a 104 wRC+, including 105 on the road.  So, this play isn't a knock on the Jays offense.  But, another note on yesterday's 20-run outburst by Toronto: All 20 runs were scored against RHP.  And of the six pitchers the Rays used, only one was a lefty.  That was Colin Poche, who pitched a scoreless 7th inning.

Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Jays.  Kikuchi put together three straight good starts in mid-to-late April, but has mostly struggled since.  He owns a 5.59 ERA, 6.85 FIP, 1.60 WHIP, and .305 batting average allowed over his last four starts.  That should spell trouble here, as the Rays own MLB's #1 wRC+ against LHP (159 or 59% above average).  That already large number rises to 175 at home, also #1 in MLB.  The Rays are 5-0 at home against LHSP this season, winning by an average score of 7-3.4.  Kikuchi is also 1-7 in his career (Team's Record) as a divisional road underdog of more than +155, losing by an average score of 7-3.

It all adds up to what looks like a Rays win.  No need for bullpen drama, so we'll go the F5 RL route as I expect McClanahan to out-pitch Kikuchi.