Recent Play Details

4% Toronto +1.5 (6:40 ET): I expect the “world” to be Tampa Bay here, which sounds strange as the Rays’ MLB-best run differential (now +107) took a massive hit yesterday with a 20-1 loss to the Blue Jays (yes, you read that score correctly). Many bettors expect a home team to “bounce back” from an embarrassing defeat such as that, and in this instance the Rays will have their ace Shane McClanahan on the bump. But give me the +1.5 with Toronto, who are obviously swinging the bats well right now and guaranteed the full complement of 27 outs. 

Prior to yesterday, the Blue Jays had dropped five in a row. But even then, they’d been swinging the bats well. It’s now four straight games with 10+ hits. Yes, the final 10 runs yesterday all came off Rays’ position players who were called into pitching duty. But before that, the Jays still had posted 10 runs off “normal” Rays’ pitching and all 12 players who got an AB also got a hit en route to a season-high 27 (hits) for the team. Now they do have to face McClanahan (7-0 in 10 starts) tonight. But the Rays’ ace is probably due for some regression as his xERA is 3.58 and he has benefited from a strand rate (92%) that is likely unsustainable (league average is 72%). McClanahan’s walk rate has also doubled from last season. 

Toronto’s lineup has hit righties better than lefties thus far, but with so many righties in the lineup that should start to change. Current Blue Jays’ hitters have a collective .816 OPS vs. the southpaw McClanahan, by the way. Jays’ starter Yusei Kikuchi draws a tough matchup as well (Rays are #1 in runs scored), however he did hold TB to just one run and four hits over six innings last month in what ended up being a 5-2 win. The team is 7-2 in all Kikuchi starts this season. Toronto now has a winning head to head record vs. TB (3-2) this season. Give me the +1.5. 4% Toronto +1.5 (Play to -140)