This has moved far enough where we can play the +1.5. I expect the price to go back up here. I think -135 or better is good for +1.5.
I posted a video breaking this game down to Twitter @topflightsi but I will summarize that here.
I'm coming back with Mackenzie Gore, he let me down in a 5% last week and he's struggled in May but has one of the best K/9 marks in MLB at 11.3 and I expect good things from him going forward. I also like the fact Gore is in a bounce back spot against the team that decided he was expendable and traded him.
Amazingly, since the Juan Soto trade, the Padres are 50-53. Also amazing, the Padres are just a game better than the Nats this season. I don't buy there being a huge difference between these two teams yet we are getting a run head start with the Nats at home here.
San Diego has lost 9 of 11 and is dead last in MLB hitting just .189 with RISP. The Nationals have knocked around Yu Darvish the last three times they have faced him. I think the run head start is good here.
Play on Nationals +1.5 (125) for 4% (or 4 units)
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