3% Take Tampa Bay (#966) (action)
The Rays are 22-4 at home this year; the single strongest homefield edge in all of baseball. They’ve won three out of four on their current homestand. Their lineup continues to hit well almost every night, pounding out six runs or more six times in their last nine ballgames. Promising rookie starter Taj Bradley has yet to allow more than three runs in any game this season, and he’s got a 27-4 K/BB ratio. Tampa has the better of these two bullpens behind their emerging stud starter. Toronto is ice cold again, 1-7 in their last eight games, scoring only 26 runs in the process. Jose Berrios got bombed for six runs in two innings of work in his lone start at the Trop last year and he’s got a 6.67 ERA on the highway this season as opposed to his 2.22 ERA at home, Last year, full season it was 6.36 on the road – this isn’t new or different. I’m going with ‘action’ here – the markets respect Berrios advanced metrics and if he gets scratched for any reason, we’ll be getting the best of the number. Take the Rays.
Line Parameter: 3% at -135 or lower, 2% at -136 or higher