Recent Play Details

4% Take Miami (#546)

Let me start with an extended excerpt from my Game 3 write-up supporting Miami against Boston. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect the results of that game:

“Here’s one NBA Playoff lesson that I’ve learned in my 25 years betting here in Las Vegas:  When a series is mispriced from Game 1, the betting markets don’t make the appropriate reactions as the series progresses.  This certainly looks to be that sort of series, with the Celtics priced at 6:1 favorites prior to Game 1.  ESPN’s analytics showed the Heat with a 3% chance to win the series, compared to a 97% chance for Boston.

“Here’s a quick excerpt from what I wrote about Denver – LA yesterday, backing the Nuggets in Game 3 on the road:  “The regular season ended 100 years ago for these players and coaches – the regular season is a loooong way in the rear view mirror.  With a #7 and an #8 seed still standing here in the postseason, clearly, this year’s regular season results aren’t a particularly good predictor of postseason play.  At this stage, I couldn’t care less about which teams were successful winning road games months ago.”  But the betting markets haven’t forgotten about the regular season – that’s where these pointspreads come from; a full season’s worth of analytics. 

Since the start of the playoffs – more than five weeks ago – Miami has been the better of these two teams.  The Bucks were the best team in the NBA; the team to beat in the playoffs.  Miami dominated them in five games. They dispatched of the Knicks easily as well.  Meanwhile, the Celtics got tested in Round 1 by a mediocre Atlanta squad.  They also got tested in Round 2 by a flawed Philadelphia team --- it was Miami getting extra rest, not Boston, as those series concluded.  Miami was the better team in Game 1, Game 2 and Game 3.  The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last dozen games, consistently undervalued.  They clearly have the superior coach.  Miami has been playing in, and winning, close games all year, while the Celtics have struggled throughout the postseason closing out tight victories.” 

So what changes for Game 4? Not much, in this bettor’s opinion. Much like last night with the Lakers, I’m not expecting Boston to lay down here.  But Miami is the better team RIGHT NOW, and the Heat know they haven’t clinched anything yet.  Gabe Vincent: “It’s the first to four games.  We’re not satisfied with three.”  The Heat are favored for the first time in this series for good reason!  Take the Heat

Line Parameter: 4% at -2 or lower, 3% at -2.5 or higher