Recent Play Details

4% Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Guardians really impressed me by going out and winning last night’s series opener with the White Sox 3-0. Not only were they at the usual disadvantage of being off the Sunday Night Game, but they’d actually played a doubleheader in New York on Sunday, losing both games. Now all three games in NY had been decided by one run, so Cleveland was probably due some positive regression. No team has more one run losses this season than the Guardians (13) so a case can be made that this team is perhaps slightly better than its overall record (21-26). Regardless, I like them to beat the White Sox again tonight. 

Chicago is a team I certainly have little affinity for as they are a bottom three team in baseball in run differential (-57) and have just seven road wins all season. They came into this series “flying high” after winning five of six, including a three-game sweep of the Royals, but all of that came at home. They did take two of three from Cleveland as well last week, but the lone loss came with the same starting pitching matchup we’ve got today - Dylan Cease vs. Logan Allen. That ended up being another low-scoring affair between these teams (3-1) with Allen turning in the better outing. 

I like Allen to get the better of Cease again here. I know some will view Cease as “attractive” in the underdog role, but he has a 5.31 road ERA and, overall, his xERA is two full points higher than last season. Furthermore, his strikeout rate is way down compared to 2022 and he’s given up a HR in five of his last six starts. Allen has allowed 3 ER or less in all five of his starts thus far. While the Guardians’ offense has been pretty inept so far, this is a team that’s on a three-game win streak at home and they’ve won 67% of their games at Progressive Field the L3 seasons as a favorite of -125 to -175. 4% Cleveland (Play to -150)