Recent Play Details

4% Brighton +0.5 (3:00 ET): “We want Europa League not Conference League," says Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi. While his Seagulls are essentially locks for the Europa League anyway, one more point makes it official and I think that's the difference in the handicap here against a Man City side who has already wrapped up the Premier League title and thus they've got nothing to play for Wednesday. The Cityzens' focus right now is on the FA Cup and Champions League Finals. 

Meanwhile, for the first time in club history, Brighton will be involved in European football next season. They assured themselves of that with an emphatic 3-1 win over relegated Southampton on Sunday. I’ve really liked this Brighton team all season. FWIW, they are ahead of both Liverpool and Manchester United in expected points and expected goal difference. So they are more than deserving of their place in Europe in 2023-24. Earning that last needed point here at the Amex would be the cherry on top of this already outstanding campaign.

Man City wanted to give the fans something to celebrate (besides the Premier League trophy) on Sunday, so they went out and scored early against Chelsea before packing it in and taking the 1-0 win. Playing on the road, I don't see the desire to strike early again. A draw is all we need here from Brighton and given the respective levels of motivation from these two sides, this is a great price to grab the proverbial “half goal head start.” 4% Brighton +0.5 (Play to -125)