Recent Play Details

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wt.buzz/db

7:05 PM ET -- MLB 

955 San Diego Padres    
956 Washington Nationals   

Play: UNDER 8 (-110)  

List Pitchers: Darvish & Gore     

Bet Size: 4% 

Line Parameters: 
4% play at 8 or better 
3% play at 7.5
2% play at 7 

My MLB totals plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

-> Washington owns a weak 81 wRC+ (19% below average) against RHP and that drops to 68 at home.

-> None of the Padres' hitters has faced Gore, which should give him the early-game edge.

-> Gore was drafted 3rd overall by the Padres in 2017 and got his first MLB experience last season with San Diego, so he should be dialed in to face the team that drafted him.

-> UNDER is 10-2 in Darvish's career when he is on the road against an NL opponent after allowing more than 3 runs in less than 6 innings in his previous start.  Darvish produced a 2.23 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in those 12 starts.

-> UNDER is 4-1-1 this season when the Padres are on the road against a LHSP.

-> UNDER is 6-1-1 this season when the Nationals are at home under the lights against a RHSP. Washington averaged 1.75 runs in those 8 games.

-> In his brief career, the UNDER is 6-0 when Gore starts at home with the total set at 8 or higher.